The two years to see the consumer industry more, on the one hand because the domestic consumer industry’s long-term prospects are more clear, on the other hand is because the consumer companies easy to understand.
The current consumer industry has three main lines of investment logic:
First, the independent brand of industrial upgrading
In other words, with the improvement of domestic manufacturing level, consumers began to gradually accept their own brands, which led to changes in the industry’s competitive landscape, more typical is the smart phone and automotive industry. Unfortunately, the excellent smart phone companies have not yet listed, ZTE, Lenovo and Cool are not particularly good varieties; and the automotive industry, due to the superposition of replacement demand, purchase tax incentives, SUV consumer preferences and other factors, ushered in the 2016 Year outbreak, there should be more than two years, but some of the accumulation is not enough, only rely on capital expenditure to achieve growth in the enterprise will be phased out, the industry has differentiated, auspicious, Guangzhou Automobile, the Great Wall can be considered a substitute after the survival of the fittest.
Second, the luxury of mass consumption
This is a good understanding, that is, at the top of the pyramid at the top of the high-end consumption, due to anti-corruption factors, with a more substantial price cuts, began to enter the public consumption of vision, such as high-end liquor, Macau gambling and luxury brands. This kind of company’s brand awareness is high, so there is a lot of room for maneuver; in other words, as long as we recognize the brand, at an acceptable price under the premise of naturally want to have. At the financial level, is the conversion between profitability and asset turnover. As the liquor is bottomed out in 2014, has risen a lot, compared to the bottom of the second half of 2016 is the end of the year, take a year to repair the valuation of the market, at this stage is still in a relatively vague stage, Opportunity. In addition, Hong Kong stocks Prada is also worthy of attention.
Third, the channel changes
Refers to some of the original dependence on the traditional channels of the company, because the line channels (such as supermarkets, department stores, pharmacies, etc.) decline, began to gradually expand the Internet channels. In this process, due to the decline in traditional channel income, and the Internet channels in the early development of marketing spending increased, resulting in the performance of such companies into the pain period. The company’s painful period is often the excitement of investment, and because some of the company’s share price is still in the adjustment stage, it is worthy of specific analysis, such as Shanghai Jahwa, Tomson times health, Vinda International and so on. The following is the example of the family.
Consumer companies, according to the classification of three types: product category, channel category, shopping guide category (Feng Weidong). As the name suggests, the product category is mainly to provide products and services company; channel category is the business channel companies, such as Wal-Mart, Suning, Jingdong, etc .; guided shopping category is to guide the role of consumption, such as hungry, public comment and so on. The “channel change” is mainly for the product category of the company, for the channel category of the company, it is not “change” but “revolution”; in other words, for the product category of the company, the channel is important, but Not fatal, so there is room for adjustment, only the inflection point of stock prices.
Shanghai Jahwa is a relatively controversial company, the main controversy comes from the management of the “discussion and analysis.” But if we are in a study of a company, always around the management of the character to argue, it is never clear. Is there no better entrepreneur in the world than Ge Wenyao? Is there no worse than Xie Wenjian professional managers? So to jump out of this circle.
As a product category of the company, Shanghai Jahwa’s core competitiveness is divided into three levels: brand, channel and product. In other words, as long as the company’s product brand status has not been a major impact, there are opportunities for transformation. The following table is the company’s main product market share data. Can be found, Liu God toilet water, Gough’s market share is rising year by year, six god shower gel, the United States and Canada net is to maintain a smooth, beginning is released in 2013, the market expansion effect is also good. Only Herborist market share is declining year by year, and Herborist’s main sales channel is the department store, which is the biggest channel by the impact of the Internet.
At the same time, in 2015 the Shanghai Jahwa and Alibaba reached a strategic cooperation agreement, Lynx official flagship store officially on the line, and smashed heavily won the day cat twoteen party exclusive naming rights, force line channel can be seen. 2014-2016 companies online channels in the proportion of income were 7.7%, 9.5% and 16%; 2016 online channel revenue grew 52%.
In addition, the company is experiencing qualitative changes, including: 1, divestiture and the main business has nothing to do with the equity investment; 2, the appointment of Zhang Dongfang as a new chairman of the board, which has a wealth of experience in the industry; 3, Architecture, driven by the channel to drive to the brand, but also highlights the importance of the brand for the development of such companies; 4, Acting well-known baby care brand Tommee Tippee and so on.
Discussions on company valuations are more difficult. Up to now, the company book value of about 3.8 times, while the past 10 years the average book value of 8.9 times, PB interval (3.08 times, 14.94 times). Assuming the company’s sales expenses to return to normal levels, its net profit in 2016 is about 7-8 billion, corresponding to the price-earnings ratio of about 25-28 times the historical average price-earnings ratio of 51.4 times, PE interval (22 times, 96 times). For a troubled company, 3.8 times the book value, 25 times the price-earnings ratio should be said that is not cheap. But if compared with the historical situation, then the price has been half of the waist, and it is not expensive now.
This time need to look at the market reflects the 2016 June to June is a more important time node, the corresponding company released semi-annual report, and expected full-year results back 90%, then the stock price of 25 yuan (about 3 times the PB ); After the stock is still underperformed in January 2017 once again test the low of 25 yuan, indicating that 3 times PB is a strong support level. And from mid-January after this round of gains is a substantial outperform, may be speculation is the new chairman of the expected (March 23 first public appearance), worth not fry it?
Attachment: Zhang Dongfang Chairman of the performance during the Vinda International (2010 – 2014) performance:
2010 – 2014, Vinda international operating income increased by 122%, net profit increased by 60%, compound growth were 17.29% and 9.85%; 2010-2014, Vinda international net profit margin fell from 10.3% to 7.4%;
2010 – 2014, Vinda International ROE fell from 15.6% to 12.2%, net profit margin fell, asset turnover slowed, leverage rose.
Looks not particularly good, but not yet delve into. However, I think Vinda International is also a very interesting company, occupy the high-end paper towels market.
Conclusion: There is a potential for reversal of the difficulties, not far from the bottom.