Market turmoil intensified, next week may be finished lower

A week capital flow, market review and next week investment strategy

One, one week market review

Last week the Federal Reserve interest rate announcement, the future may shrink table, to promote the dollar index rose sharply, while the European and American stock markets strong shock.

By the United States to combat the Syrian incident, crude oil and precious metals this week, a substantial strength, gold hit a new high, other commodities affected by the dollar weakened weak shocks.

Domestic bulk commodities fell sharply this week, the species differentiation was obvious, double coke and thermal coal relative shock strong. Last week, strong performance of colored and agricultural corn were slightly adjusted, especially black thread and iron ore again down sharply.

Chemical rubber and PTA this week, the second bottom, natural rubber on Friday heavy volume limit. This week the international market Australian coal mines affected by hurricanes, coal prices rose nearly 80%, effectively boost domestic bimodal, especially coking coal late Friday night trading a new high rebound, is expected to continue strong shock next week.

Agricultural oil, soybean meal and sugar this week, weak shocks, but the decline in Friday’s slowdown, the market outlook is expected to stabilize the rebound, the proposed short-term empty single leave to wait and see. This week, the performance of the precious metals market eye-catching, by the United States to combat Syria bullish support, prices hit a new high, but Friday night the United States sharply stronger, leading to short-term signs of profit-taking, is expected next week, strong adjustment, The

Last week, both strong rebound in debt, although the central bank this week to continue to net return, but the Treasury bonds out of trouble, the price stabilized rebound, is expected next week, a strong shock, the proposed short-term to wait and see.

By the Aoxin New District approved and planning to stimulate the positive, A-share market, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and infrastructure sector strengthened sharply, driven by stock index futures rose slightly shocks, the impact of early Friday high, the market short-term shocks strong, is expected to fall next week, Short-term more than a single leave and according to the key resistance of a small amount of tentative short.

Second, next week focus on the variety of investment strategies

PTA: Last week, the international oil prices rebounded, the domestic chemical market by the black and metal goods fell to drive a strong shock, some varieties of defensive performance. The new week to see, raw material PX by short covering to lead the rebound, PTA real-time cash flow is compressed to 260 yuan / ton, Yi Sheng’s credit warehouse receipts are more concentrated on the disk to suppress heavier.

But the delivery of warehouse receipts last week continued to flow out, the total volume than the end of March highs fell more than 10,000 sheets to 249,191 sheets, and low cash flow, the mainstream polyester manufacturers supporting the PTA unit has a centralized parking maintenance of the single , Coupled with the upstream raw material PX into the maintenance cycle and OPEC frozen production to extend the expected support for oil prices, PTA cost side of the decline in space is also limited, the proposed PTA futures callback carefully do more.




Methanol market by the mainland unit maintenance and port MTO device in late April is expected to show strong performance, but the methanol plant maintenance and restart the new production capacity is expected to increase the supply of long-term supply pressure, methanol futures performance is very weak, we believe that short-term methanol futures through Rebound this week after the callback pressure, short-term temporary wait and see is appropriate.

Polyolefin market by the installation efforts to increase the demand and the release of demand in the background of high inventory pressure to ease, short-term rebound demand. And from the plate after the point of view, the early main long long has a strong approach, is expected to short-term callback space is limited, investors can respond to a short short-term operation, a good stop.

Shanghai nickel: Shanghai nickel 1709 week down 1.05% to 83970, turnover increased to 98 million hands, positions increased to 40.8 million hands. Nickel trend last week for the rebound resistance. As the demand for the season is not busy, stainless steel prices fell, trading frustrated, high inventory, 300 tons of steel to a loss.

After the rainy season, Suiligao nickel mine shipments lower than expected, domestic nickel ore port inventory continued to decline. High nickel pig iron by the cost of rising production prices and other strong, the North nickel iron plant plans to repair in April; affected by the tension of raw materials, domestic electrolytic nickel production in March fell.

Electrolytic nickel economic advantages to strengthen the spot continued premium. Philippine crackdown on illegal mines in the nickel mine, Indonesia Anta quota lower than expected news to enhance the market supply of nickel concerns about tight.

We believe that the nickel price line is still facing greater uncertainty, but due to strong nickel prices, nickel iron plant maintenance increased, the news side positive, Shanghai nickel short-term fundamentals support strong, strong trend last week, the proposed midline to maintain Wait and see, short-term operation to do more dominated by bargain.

Agricultural products: last week after the first week of Qingming small holiday, domestic and foreign beans market is still continuing the trend of pre-holiday shocks. At present the market has two major negative factors.

First, the USDA latest US soybean acreage this year, compared with last year, a substantial increase, and the rate of increase than expected;

Second, the industry recently raised the South American soybean production is expected in the past two months, South American soybean production has been raised, the market for the global soybean supply is expected to continue to strengthen. This is the main reason why beans prices have continued to fall since early March, and there is almost no decent rebound.

The current US soybean prices have touched the low of the end of September last year, and this price is the US soybean planting cost last year, from the human and production data costs, this year the US soybean planting costs will only increase over last year, so we think the current beauty The price of beans is already at an absolute low level.

However, the market is sometimes irrational, do not rule out the possibility of falling below the cost of the price, but never long in the cost below the current price at any time there may be a rebound. Therefore, we believe that beans in the current price can try to thoroughly, but need to control the position to resist the risk of extreme market risk.