The economic situation is not optimistic, so the downward trend can be observed from five dimensions: manufacturing, infrastructure, export, finance and real estate.
The first is a specific analysis of manufacturing industry
For example, a steel company’s profit was only 110 million in 2015, 690 million in 2016, 2.55 billion in 2017 and about 3 billion in 2018. In the traditional industry of steel, the profit growth rate has exceeded 100% in recent years. The logic behind this is that steel prices continue to rise under the influence of supply-side reforms. Therefore, steel enterprises have enjoyed a very comfortable life in recent years. This situation is unsustainable. The dividend of supply-side reform is gradually fading. Steel prices will not rise in 2018 and will face obvious downward pressure in 2019.
Ten years ago, 1 million people could buy a nice house in Beijing with full payment. Now it is worth at least 10 million yuan. If the 1 million yuan is deposited in the bank, it is less than 1.35 million yuan, which is not enough for the down payment of a house, according to the annual interest rate of 3% on average for one year.
Inflation cycle, currency devaluation. Everyone has the same currency and is devaluing, but why is the gap between the rich and the poor widening? For the Chinese, the intuitive feeling is that those who buy houses early and those who buy more are getting richer and richer. Those who do not buy houses, those who cannot afford them, are getting poorer and poorer, and cannot afford them more and more. What is the reason behind this?
Inflation refers to the sustained growth of the overall social price level. Attention should be paid to the overall price level, not the single price. For example, in the past 10 years, the overall price of the society has been continuously rising. People feel that it is more and more difficult to buy a house and that food, clothing, housing, transportation and medical care are becoming more and more expensive. However, there are also some things that are not very expensive, and people feel they can afford them, such as cars, such as electronic products.
For the Internet industry, taking the lead is the biggest advantage for subsequent growth.
In the Internet industry, while enjoying the Red Sea in new fields, one needs to have a clear understanding of the past. The Internet industry has witnessed the rapid changes between the enthusiasm and coldness of the capital market. It has grasped the wind and capital has poured in. If we fail to keep pace with the times, the capital market will abandon us mercilessly and will never be indifferent. So what are the big openings in the internet industry in 2019?
On the world economy, many economic observers have surprisingly consistent views. They think that the future debt crisis will be a very serious crisis, and the data also support this point.
According to the data released by the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) last year, the debt owed by governments around the world is as high as 63 trillion US dollars. If ranked according to the total amount, the top five countries are as follows:
First place: US $ 19.9 trillion in global debt accounts for 31.8% of GDP, second place: Japan $ 11.8 trillion in global debt accounts for 18.8% of GDP, third place: China $ 4.96 trillion in global debt accounts for 7.9% of GDP, fourth place: Italy $ 2.45 trillion in global debt accounts for 3.9% of GDP, third place: France $ 2.37 trillion in global debt accounts for 3.8% of GDP, 96.3%
If you look at the proportion of GDP, the world’s most serious countries are Japan, Greece, Lebanon, Italy and Portugal. Japan’s highest total debt is 240% of GDP, while Portugal’s lowest is 130%.
Hotel assets have been seriously saturated, which is the consensus of Chinese hotel investors. In China, the political demand for hotel construction is far greater than the market demand, which is also an important reason for the rapid development of hotel real estate construction in China under the background of severe saturation. For hotel investors, owners willing to build hotels will almost never rely solely on hotels to earn returns. Land, housing, factories, etc. will become the conditions for replacing with local governments when building hotels.
Even so, hotel investors will still try their best to make hotels reduce losses or even make profits as much as possible. Among them, the construction link is the main link that the owner can maximize self – control. Shortening the construction cycle, bringing the hotel into a state of operation, effectively controlling the construction cycle and saving the capital cost and time cost, increasing the validity period of property income increase and preventing competitors from entering the market, all have good active advantages.