How to “cook small” in the Middle East?

Now Syria and Israel in the Middle East are just one of them. They are the focus of today’s world and the “net red” in international relations. The geopolitical environment in which they live is similar to the disputed world in the Eastern Zhou Dynasty.

In the Eastern Zhou Dynasty, there were “Spring and Autumn Five Commandments” and “Seven Heroes of the Warring States Period”. In 17 countries in the Middle East, there were also Turkey, Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia and other countries vying for dominance, and there were more foreign players like the United States and Russia, so the situation is more complicated. .

Chaotic cause
For many centuries, the Western Wall of Israel has been a place for Jewish prayer and pilgrimage. The diversity of ethnic groups and the diversity of religions make the Middle East more differentiated

There are many ethnic groups in the Middle East, and they are intertwined, chaotic or harmonious, and there are always roots.

“Zuo Chuan Cheng Gong four years” contains: “Non-family, its heart will be different.” What is the family? One of the main differences is the language. The language of the Middle East population is mainly divided into the flash language family (Flash language family), the Indo-European language family (India-Iranian language group) and the Altaic language family (Turkish language family). Behind the language are cultures and customs, as well as values, ideologies, and so on. Language is unreasonable, and nature is easy to lose.

As the birthplace of the earliest civilization of mankind, the Middle East experienced a long and cruel devastation, and it is difficult for future generations to “give a smile and enmity.” Professor Han Quanan of Tianjin Normal University pointed out that the region’s long-term confrontation between the Greek-Byzantine Empire and the Persian dynasty and the Sassanid dynasty from the Hippo War in the 5th century BC to the Alexandria in the 3rd century BC. Until the geopolitical pattern of confrontation between the East and the West, combined with the long-standing contradiction between the Arabs and the Ottoman Empire, the scars are scarred. History cannot but form a memory, and memory cannot be impossible to produce “inertia”!

The diversity of ethnic groups and the diversity of religions make the Middle East more differentiated. How many sects are there in the Middle East? The answer is probably the “lion of the Lugou Bridge.” It is the main Christian genre. There are the Jacobs of Syria, the Nestorian of Mesopotamia (also known as Nestorianism), and the Coptic of Egypt.

Before the rise of Islam, West Asia and North Africa prevailed in Christianity. Iran’s high principles prevailed in Zoroastrianism (also known as martyrdom and worshipping fire), and Central Asia prevailed in Buddhism. Later, Islam was the only one who became the most religious person in the Middle East and was in an official position in ideology. Even so, non-Arabs who believe in Islam often encounter the “arrogance and prejudice” of the Arab nation.

The modernization process in the Middle East has been entangled in religious politics and national issues, and development is very uneven. This has also become one of the constant causes of the Middle East revolution and war.

“Back to the big tree to enjoy the cool”? But these “big trees” are a double-edged sword for the countries of the Middle East. During the two world wars, Britain and France controlled the Arab world. The United Kingdom controlled Egypt, Palestine, Jordan, Iraq and the Arabian Peninsula. France alone enjoyed Syria and Lebanon. Although countries are sovereign and independent, this does not mean that the powers are willing to give up the old “Doll House”.

The big countries competed in the Middle East energy market, and some directly regarded this land as a political laboratory and military training ground, causing many countries to lose control of their order until a huge wave of refugees formed. “The fire in the city gate, the fish and the fish”, this is a kind of counter-attack for Europe with a water supply.

How to win in the chaos?
Some people think that the United States has already said goodbye to the Middle East and think about it with a toe. Is it possible? However, it is a means of retreating. Sure enough, the United States recently “smuggled” in the Middle East, constantly spoiling the situation, such as moving to Jerusalem, acknowledging that the Golan Heights belonged to Israel, “black” the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and ended the “exemption period” against Iranian oil sanctions.

“Children are right or wrong, and adults only care about the interests.” There may be only one real purpose of the extraterritorial powers: it has provoked the weak cooperation between the countries of the Middle East, making them more fragmented and continuing to exist for themselves. Found the best excuse. With a foothold and a springboard, why is “the teacher is unnamed”? When is he unable to quickly counter opponents when necessary?

For the Arab countries, is it united to boycott Israel’s “layout expansion”, or is it to unite the United States and Israel to curb Iran’s “rising rise” in Syria? It is difficult to choose. Individual countries are sanctioned and handed over for punishment because they are standing in the wrong team.

All roads lead to Rome. Can you learn from the practice of Su Qin and Zhang Yi?

As a famous strategist in the Warring States period, in the face of the “game of power” at that time, Su Qin decided to use violence to create a “Avenger Alliance” – “combined” six countries to fight against the Qin. After the realization of this “small goal”, Su Qin took the identity of “from the length of the contract,” and both of them shared the six-country seal, so that Qin Guo did not dare to send a letter to Guguan in 15 years, and there was no one in the limelight.

Many people criticized Su Qin, saying that he has a big strategy and lacks ground-based and executable tactics, but I don’t think so. When a country is attacked, the five countries should respond to each other; even if Qin is a tiger and leopard, can it be the madness of the five-nation wolves? ! Regardless of whether the strategist must become a tactician, simply say that this specific combination of anti-Qin “top-level design” program, in addition to Zhuge Liang’s “long-pair”, who can surpass?

However, the Athens politician Bethley said that the fortress is often broken from within. The natural enemies of the vertical are not outside, but the members of the alliance. The Arab countries truly united against Israel and only appeared during the first Middle East war. Because the military alliance has not been positively motivated, it is easy to be disintegrated. Three hearts and two minds, heart and soul are still normal. What is even more amazing is that in the fourth Middle East war, Jordan sent troops to participate in the Arab coalition forces, and one sent a message to Israel!

Under the logic of “breaking the cans” in some Arab countries, the “Middle East” of Zhang’s ceremony began to flourish.

Golan Heights, Israeli post near the Syrian border

In the face of the momentum of the alliance, Zhang Yi gently “swinged his sleeves”, sent a small profit after the fly, the seemingly powerful alliance of the vertical collapsed in an instant. In the words of Jia Yi, it is “the princes of the world have been embarrassed. So they lost their lives, and they clashed and slashed the land.” Qin had the strength to make up its drawbacks, chasing the north, murdering millions, bleed and bleed; , slaughter the world, split the mountains and rivers…”

In the same way, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, etc. did not “Qin Qin”, and shook hands with the old rival Israel?

What brand is the Golan Heights?
According to historical records, Zhang Yi, with a grand PARTY held at the border, has separated the alliance of Su Qin’s painstaking efforts. Then, the means of the Americans are more sophisticated. They have not even held the PARTY. They have made the countries of the Middle East stunned, and they have slammed their mouths. This card is the Golan Heights.

On March 25, 2019, Trump met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House and announced that he would officially recognize Israel’s “sovereignty” over the Golan Heights. “A stone provokes a thousand waves”, not to mention the Arab world. Even the traditional American allies such as Canada and Turkey have slammed Trump’s “slamming.” The Permanent Representative of Belgium to the United Nations, Mark Peckstin, even announced on behalf of France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Poland and Belgium that the five countries did not recognize the Golan Heights as Israeli territory.

“Jiangshan is so beautiful”, a Golan Heights, what are the beginnings?

On the map, it is only a long and narrow mountainous area with an average elevation of 600 meters. But once you look at its surrounding resources, you immediately understand the “connotation” of the place: its west is bordered by Israel, from which it stands tall, overlooking the Israeli Galilee Valley and the Syrian capital Damascus, which is only 60 kilometers away. . This is the place of the project, the interest… No, it should be called life and death! Therefore, Israel regards the Golan Heights as a natural security barrier; in Syria’s view, once the Golan Heights is lost, it means that the capital gateway is opened, and the front of the military is the first to bear the brunt!

From the perspective of natural resources, the Golan Heights is surrounded by lakes and has abundant rainfall. This is a natural “water tower” for the Middle East, which lacks water and rain. 40% of Israel’s fresh water supply comes from this. . Therefore, at all costs, the Israelites, at all costs, even if they give up the Sinai Peninsula 30 times larger than the Golan Heights, must also defend the place (in fact, Israel currently controls 2/3 of the region).

Since the occupation of the Golan Heights in 1967, Israel has actually controlled it for more than 50 years. In this case, the “Golan Heights” in the United States must be played. Trump’s decision to publicly recognize “sovereignty” was set half a month before the Israeli election. On the surface, it was a matter of selling the Israeli Prime Minister’s personal feelings and further wooing the Jewish voters in the United States. In fact, during this period, the United States could not see Syrian Pakistan. The Shah government is increasingly turning to Iran, and the United States is increasingly marginalized after the war in Syria, so it must regain a game in other related areas.

As for acknowledging whether Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan Heights will “give the Arab countries a punch and is not conducive to directing them to the negotiating table of peace” (Paul Sullivan, Georgetown University Security Research Center, USA), it is of no importance. – Americans have always been very realistic in the face of affordability and morality. Moreover, in order to deter the Arab countries from moving, the United States also airlifted the most advanced “Sade” anti-missile system of the US military to Israel in a joint military exercise with Israel in March and took a walk.

Effortlessly, as long as the mouth moves, the right to speak in the Middle East will be regained. The Americans do not know how many times more than Zhang Yi’s PARTY. As for whether the Middle East “water tower” in the Golan Heights will become a “gunpowder barrel”, it is not completely clear yet, but Trump’s nephew has been thrown out.

Israel regards the Golan Heights as a natural safety barrier

How long will it be?
Yi Yin of the Shang Dynasty believes that the meat of the animals in the water is “squeaky”, the meat of the meat raptors is “squatting”, and the meat of the grazing animals is “squatting”. What should I do? The five flavors of science will be reconciled, and then processed with water, wood and fire. Among them, the fire is the key. When the fire is big and small, when it is strong and weak, it can be removed. Later, Laozi made a summary, which is the beginning of “ruling the big country if cooking fresh”.

The same is true for the treatment of chaos in the countries of the Middle East. However, the precondition is that the “heat” is moderate and cannot be excessive. Moreover, all kinds of “seasoning” are put first and then put, put more and put less, are quite particular about. If it is unrealistic to blindly fire the fire, or to over-emphasize the bias, it will inevitably cause the situation in the Middle East to continue to turmoil and even fuel the fire.

The surface of “cooking fresh” is based on the use of materials, Junchen Zuo, and the core is “and”. In today’s disputes and frequent conflicts, “harmony”, as a contagious humanistic concern, is a low-cost but never low-value relationship lubricant. It can make the suffocation not kill first, or it can make the conflict disappear in the bud and end in invisible. The Chinese often say that “a step back and a broad sky” “shelved disputes and jointly developed” is the harmonious way of “harmony” and the social rationality of peaceful coexistence.

How long will the Middle East still be chaotic? The key is to see how big the mind and pattern of the “and” of the parties are, and how feasible the “and” scheme is.