Can NATO live another 70 years?

From December 3rd to 4th, the NATO Leaders Summit will be held in London to commemorate the 70 years of NATO. The 70th Anniversary Summit was supposed to be a great opportunity to commemorate the past and look to the future, but it has been widely heard. From Macron’s “NATO Brain Death Doctrine” to the US ’s drastic reduction in direct budget investment in NATO, the situation is now over. At the NATO Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in early April this year, US Secretary of State Pompeo vowed “to ensure that NATO will continue for another 70 years”, but now it seems that NATO, which is struggling at home and abroad, is “severely confused”, and it is difficult to find the motivation to live another 70 years. source.

After the end of the Cold War, major changes have taken place in the strategic environment, and Europe and the United States have lost their common strategic goals. The US’s strategic focus has gradually shifted eastward, and its attention and resources have been “rebalanced” to Asia. Even the Europeans’ favorite Obama has claimed to be the “President of the Pacific.” Trump held high the “U.S. priority” banner, and military investment in Europe first served US domestic policy. The “European Deterrence Initiative” (ie, the “European Reassurance Initiative” during the Obama era) sharply cut the fiscal 2020 budget by 10% to compensate for Funding gap for US-Mexico border wall repair. In recent years, Europe’s periphery has been turbulent, and its strategic vision has been more restrained. The “2019-2024 Strategic Agenda” issued by the European Union clearly puts “ensure Europe’s security and freedom” as its top priority. Macron’s “NATO brain death theory” means that the United States does not negotiate with its allies and disregards the interests of its allies. NATO has a martial art but has lost a clear direction of action. NATO is torn down by East and West in Europe and the United States, it is difficult to anchor targets, counter-terrorism, fight pirates, and strengthen the deployment to the east of Russia.

For a long time, NATO has formed the structure of the United States as the master and the slave. NATO is not only a security alliance between Europe and the United States, but also an important tool for the United States to contain Europe. The shortcomings of Europe’s military are not only the result of laissez-faire, they are also affected by the deliberate suppression by the United States. In recent years, Europe intends to start a new battle in defense and make a difference in the integration of defense industry, which immediately aroused the vigilance of the United States and scrutinized the EU defense fund and the “permanent structural cooperation” provisions and exerted influence. In fact, the rise of European power within NATO is an irresistible development trend. If Europe wants to work hard and achieve strategic autonomy, it will inevitably make achievements in its defense capabilities. Naturally, it is impossible to obey the words of the United States. NATO was basically a prestige of the United States before. I am afraid there will be more different voices in the future. The delicate balance between NATO ’s multilateralist alliance structure and the unilateralist tool that only the United States is leading will be broken. If NATO wants to retain The United States, tied to Europe, needs a new framework to accommodate this future change.

NATO wants to live another 70 years, and it must find development goals beyond traditional geopolitics. After the end of the cold war, NATO has sought to actively transform, while expanding its membership, expanding its capabilities, developing capabilities beyond collective defense, expanding its defense areas, jumping out of Europe, and going global, it played an important role in the war on terrorism in Afghanistan. However, after the crisis in Ukraine, NATO quickly retreated and resurfaced as a “cold war” face, but failed to regain its former glory. This indicates that the international environment has undergone profound changes, and the poor soldiers and Chen Bing confrontation are no longer in line with the trend of the times. s Choice. As a “legacy of the Cold War”, if NATO cannot transcend the ideological barrier, it will completely mess up and act as a fighter to intervene and suppress the rise of emerging countries. This is not the common aspiration of nearly 30 NATO member states and will only expand further. Internal divisions are accelerating towards division.

It is not easy for NATO to overcome these contradictions, but it is too early to assert that NATO is about to have a funeral. In fact, NATO is one of the most successful military alliances to date. Its exploration in the field of military technology is at the forefront of the international community. The multilateral military mechanism is also unique. The United States will not abandon NATO. With the “NATO Support Law”, the possibility of the United States withdrawing from NATO is predicated on fiscal rules, and Europe cannot leave NATO in the short term. However, if NATO is still advancing in the current turbulent atmosphere, and as international forces continue to move around, it will likely be marginalized in less than 70 years.