After the U.S. used drone-launched missiles to accurately kill Suleimani, Iran ’s supreme commander of the “Holy City Brigade”, Iran launched a “revenge” operation on January 8. After the two waves of missile attacks on the US military base in Iraq, Iran announced that it was not seeking to escalate the war, and how the United States will react has become the focus of attention.
After all this time, whether it is the strategic impact on the Middle East or the disruptive changes in the style of war, we deserve our attention.
Judging from the strategic intention of the United States: First, the need to establish authority in the Middle East. The U.S.’s contradiction on the Iranian nuclear issue has not hesitated to care about the concerns of the international community and the interests of European allies, and has lost American integrity. The NATO summit was fruitless, bargaining for troops, bargaining for escort alliances, and the United States feared that it would lose the respect, obedience and trust it had in the past. Russia, Iran and Syria fought side by side, making important contributions to winning the war on terror, and their influence in the Middle East continues to rise. The killer at this time is to tell the world that the United States is still the largest player in the Middle East. The United States will never give up the Middle East, and will not tolerate Iran and foreign powers to expand their sphere of influence and influence in the Middle East.
The second is the need for competition among major powers. At present, the international situation is undergoing profound changes. The strength of the United States is relatively weak, and emerging countries are rising rapidly. In this era of decline, the world has returned to the era of great power competition. The Middle East has always been the center of geopolitics. The United States has chosen to take action against Iran. The purpose is to increase control and influence over the Middle East, prevent Russian forces from entering the Indian Ocean south, squeeze Russia and Iran’s sphere of influence and development space in the Middle East, and prevent emergence The situation of comprehensive integration and cooperation between Asia and Europe.
The third is the need to reduce the cost of war. The United States’ click-to-kill operation is, in a way, a test of Iran’s bottom line. Since 2008, the U.S. military has significantly increased its targeted precision strikes on special targets abroad, and has repeatedly used drones to conduct targeted clearance operations against key members of the Taliban and Al-Qaida. The United States has been researching and implementing “hybrid wars”, that is, combining “combined boxing” in various fields of politics, economy, military, science and technology, information, and the Internet. The targeted cleanup is only one of the methods in the “mixed war”, not a new thing. The political suppression, economic sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and alliance response that the United States previously conducted against Iran are all mixed methods.
The United States hopes to achieve the goal of “discovery is destroyed, war is determined”, in order to give full play to its strong scientific and technological advantages and strategic deterrence, so as to minimize its own costs and personnel losses. Trump said that the purpose of the U.S. targeted removal was to “stop the war”.
After the U.S.’s brutal assassination of Suleimani, Iran angrily announced its withdrawal from the Iran nuclear agreement, and now implements “revenge” operations, and the possibility of the Middle East entering a new cycle of unrest is rising rapidly.
First of all, “targeted removal” may cause a significant increase in global terrorist activities. The United States killed another country ’s military leader in the name of “counter-terrorism.” On the surface, it seems that the United States has achieved a tactical victory, but actually made a strategic mistake. The United States’ “fixed-point clearance” as a “foreign military operation” lacks legal basis, which greatly exceeds the so-called military power of self-defense in the “United Nations Charter.” This kind of action means that the United States can define the enemy and launch war as it wants, It is very dangerous to clear whoever. This approach of the United States has sounded alarm bells for countries around the world.
In addition, once targeted eradication technology spreads and terrorist organizations replicate this model, it is likely that global terrorist violence will increase significantly. The opening of the “Pandora’s Box” by the United States will further worsen the security situation in the Middle East. The United States will not be at peace in the Middle East, and the two parties will even retaliate with each other and enter a vicious circle.
Second, the style of war highlights subversive changes. Informationization, unmannedness, and intelligence are the basic styles of future wars, and the mechanism for victory in wars is undergoing major changes. Traditional combat platforms such as aircraft carriers and aircraft have not been used, but the war has begun or ended. Although the United States has an absolute advantage over Iran, Iran is not without a fight back. Iran has threatened that if the United States counterattacks, it will attack Israel, the United Arab Emirates and other US Middle East allies. Iran can also coordinate a number of civilian armed agents in the Middle East to fight agent wars, which can achieve the purpose and avoid direct confrontation with the United States. At the same time, Iran can also use UAVs and missiles to attack U.S. facilities in the Middle East. U.S. freighters passing through the Strait of Hormuz will also be exposed to danger; using network technology to attack the US government, military, and financial systems; Launched an international public opinion offensive against the United States and so on. It can be seen that in the future, the United States and Iran will have both traditional battlefield fights and multi-field “mixed boxing.”
Thirdly, the chaos in the Middle East is likely to persist. A series of recent US actions reflects a renewed understanding of Middle East values. At present, the game of big powers in the Middle East is diversified, and many countries are ambitious, making peace in the Middle East full of variables. Therefore, the sense of crisis in the United States in the Middle East will make it use unfavorable and unused tactics in the past, and add uncertainty.
At present, in terms of the scope and intensity of the revenge attacks, Iran does not want to expand the war between the two countries. While Iran responded strongly, it also maintained a certain restraint. The strike was limited to air strikes bombing US military targets. The Iranian foreign minister also said that the missile attack meant that Iran’s revenge on the United States was over. The ultimate goal of Iran is for the United States to lift the economic blockade against Iran, restore oil exports, and ease domestic pressure. Whether the United States ’retaliation against Iran is more intensive depends on whether Iran ’s retaliatory action has been escalated and whether there have been US casualties in the operation. However, the US-Iranian game in the Middle East will remain long-term.
Of course, no matter what military means the United States will use in the future, it will not be able to change the general trend of win-win and common development in the world today. By force alone, we will not be able to achieve our goals.