US and Iraq downgrade, world relieved temporarily

“The world is relieved for the time being.” After US President Donald Trump’s national speech on the Iranian missile attack on U.S. military bases on the 8th, German “Spiegel” weekly magazine shared common feelings from the outside world. Trump’s speech had warnings and threats, but the most important signal sent was to “embrace peace” and not use military means to respond to the Iranian attack. Over the past few days, watching the United States and Iran fight each other fiercely, walking the edge of the war, the hearts of the world have mentioned their throats. The good news is that neither side wants war, and the reality is that the “alert” is not so easy to dismiss-this is almost the consensus of the situation analysts. Trump urges all parties, like the United States, to abandon the Iran nuclear deal. But even the United States, a staunch ally of the United Kingdom, said on the 9th that the Iranian nuclear agreement is the best arrangement at present. Russian News Agency quoted Russian diplomatic sources as saying that it is more logical for the United States to return to the Iranian nuclear agreement that it has promoted, signed, and approved in a UN Security Council resolution. The Trump administration’s hasty decision to target Iran has also sparked controversy and anger in the United States. On the 9th local time, the US House of Representatives will vote on limiting the president’s right to war.

Trump vs Iran, it’s not over

“Beautiful military equipment cannot rule the world, but the people can. The people in the Middle East want Americans to leave.” On the 9th, Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif announced on Twitter that he accepted the CNN and wrote down This sentence @Trump. This interview occurred before Iran attacked U.S. military bases with missiles, but because of its release time, it was considered that Iran was the earliest “indirect” response to Trump’s speech.

At 11:00 local time on the 8th, when Trump was delivering a national speech at the White House, US Vice President Pence, Secretary of State Pompeo, Secretary of Defense Esper, and US Army Chairman Mark Milly all stood behind him. The scene was described by American political commentator Berg as “unusual.” In his speech, Trump claimed that he “will never allow Iran to possess nuclear weapons” and announced that he would immediately impose additional punitive economic sanctions on Iran. But at the end of this approximately 10-minute speech, he said that the United States “is ready to embrace peace with all those who seek it.” The BBC said that this implies that the United States will not use military means to respond to Iran’s attacks on US military bases.

“Trump’s speech is stepping on the brakes of the tense Middle East situation,” Egypt’s “Seventh Daily” commented that the United States and Iran have talked fiercely in the past few days, worrying that the two countries will fall into the abyss of war. The British “Financial Times” said on the 9th that the United States and Iran have retreated from the fringe policy of the past five days. A source told the newspaper that the two countries had exchanged information on the cooling situation through a secret communication channel in Switzerland last night.

The Associated Press said on the 9th that Iran was sending a complex signal as it eased tensions with the United States. The semi-official Iranian Tasnim News Agency quoted Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Commander Araghi as warning that Iran “will take more severe revenge soon.” The day before, Sulaymani ’s successor, Iran ’s “Holy City Brigade”

The new commander Carney said he would continue to follow his predecessor route and eventually drive the United States out of the Middle East.

The Washington Post commented that, although withdrawn from the brink of war, there was no indication that there was any room for concession in irreconcilable demands. The United States and Iraq all suggested that the ball was in their own half. The British “Financial Times” commented on the 9th that the risk of US-Iranian military use will not subside soon, and the situation will not return to calm soon. The initial inducement of violent confrontation between the two sides-Trump letting the United States unilaterally withdraw from the Iran nuclear agreement and take “limit pressure” on Tehran to seek renegotiation of the nuclear agreement-has not disappeared. “Trump vs Iran: It’s not over,” CNN wrote in the title.

There may also be new crises. On the 9th, a huge poster commemorating the second figure of Iraq’s “People’s Mobilization Organization” Muhandis was posted in the country’s green zone. Like Suleimani, Muhandis was also killed in the US air strike. The leader of the group issued a statement on Twitter saying that it was time for Iraq to respond. “This response will not be smaller than Iran’s counterattack. This is a commitment.”

U.S. calls for abandoning Iran nuclear deal

In a national speech on the 8th, Trump urged Britain, France, Germany, Russia, and China to recognize the reality and get rid of the Iran nuclear agreement, saying that they will work together to reach an agreement with Iran to make the world safer and more peaceful. However, in the view of the Financial Times, on the contrary, these countries should remain neutral and step up their efforts to find a solution to the Iranian nuclear issue through negotiations. The newspaper said that the only way to reduce the risk of war in the Middle East is to resolve diplomatic issues concerning Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Developments in recent days may simply make this task more difficult.

British Prime Minister Johnson spoke on the phone with Iranian President Rouhani on the 9th to urge Iran to end hostility to the United States, but emphasized Britain’s commitment to the Iran nuclear agreement, saying it was “the best arrangement to prevent Iran from possessing nuclear weapons”. Rouhani urged Johnson to condemn the US killing of Suleimani, saying that without Suleimani’s efforts to combat IS, London would not have today’s peace and security. European Council President Michel also said on the phone with Rouhani on the 9th that the EU will maintain the Iran nuclear agreement.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said on the 9th that the international community should proceed from the long-term and overall situation and firmly maintain a comprehensive agreement to promote the relaxation of the Iranian nuclear and Middle East situations. On the same day, the official of the Iranian ambassador to China expressed gratitude to Chinese netizens when interacting with the official website of the Global Network, saying that he felt the warmth from Chinese netizens’ messages at a very moment. “Iran will continue to work to maintain regional peace and stability in the future, and the lives of the Iranian people will be as calm as ever. Chinese friends rest assured that the New Year in Iran, security is not an issue.”

U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Krafft said in a letter to the UN Security Council on the 8th that the United States stands ready to “open serious negotiations with Iran unconditionally.” But she claims that the United States killed Iranian generals for “self-defense” and vowed to take further action in the Middle East if necessary. Iran’s Islamic Republic News Agency on the 9th quoted the country’s permanent representative to the United Nations Lawansi as saying that the United States President called for cooperation “untrustworthy” in the context of sanctions on Tehran. The BBC commented that the tension between the United States and Iran has shown signs of easing, but it is still the United States that ultimately affects the situation in the Middle East.

House limits Trump’s right to war

Domestically, the Trump administration’s decision to launch an attack on Iranian targets has once again torn the United States. U.S. Vice President Pence said on the 8th that the United States is now safer and stronger because of the president’s decisive actions. But the same day, Pompeo, Esper and others gave secret briefings to members of Congress, provoking the anger of Senate Democrats and two Republicans. CNN reported that the most intense criticism came from Trump’s allies. Republican Senator Mike Lee said it was the worst briefing he’d heard in nine years in the Senate, and the government’s explanation of the air strike on Suleimani was “completely crazy.” Republican Senator Rand Paul called it “an insult to the Constitution.”

US House Speaker Pelosi announced on the 8th that the House will vote on the 9th to restrict Trump’s right to war with Iran. The statement said that the resolution will require Trump to stop all military operations against Iran unless approved by Congress. The United States “New York Times” said that the resolution will face difficulties in the Republican-controlled Senate. In any case, this will inevitably lead to fierce debate over Trump’s Iran strategy and Congress’ restriction on the president’s power to launch war. Russia’s “News” quoted Russian parliamentarian Klimov as saying that the situation in the Middle East has become the “hostage” of US internal fighting, and future development will depend on the US election.

“In Iran, Trump’s intimidation has failed again,” wrote New York Times columnist Paul Krugman, saying that since the first day of his administration, Trump’s actions have been based on such an obvious Belief: He can easily intimidate foreign governments-they will soon yield, and despite humiliation, this strategy has always failed. US officials seem to be surprised by the one-sided negative consequences of Suleimani’s killing, but betraying friends and squandering their credibility can lead to such consequences.