Gains and Losses in the US-Iran Game

The U.S. assassination of General Suleimani of Iran, a sovereign country, by drone on the land of Iraq, a sovereign country, not only violates the norms of international affairs, but also points in the already chaotic Middle East powder barrel. A big fire.

Although the United States did not escalate the war after Iran launched a missile attack on a U.S. military base in Iraq, it said that Iran had subdued and that the United States had gained practical benefits. But as far as the objective situation is concerned, the United States has achieved very little in this operation, and it can even be said that the strategic goals have basically failed. If this assassination is conducive to Trump’s bid for re-election, it actually further exacerbates the already deeply fragmented political structure in the United States, and at the same time objectively damages the US’s “great power reputation”.

What is even more intriguing is that from the actual effect, this series of US actions objectively did not substantially destroy Iran ’s military and political command system, but helped Iran to alleviate or resolve some of the challenges it had previously faced.

First, Suleimani is known for his toughness and toughness in Iranian politics, and has the loyal support of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, second only to his supreme leader, Khamenei. Americans previously viewed Suleimani as a “shadow president” and played an unshakable role in Iran’s policy making. The United States seems to have easily removed Iran ’s supreme general, but its impact on the Iranian army ’s command system was not objectively significant. Sulaymani ’s deputy quickly took over his position and continued to command the “Holy City Brigade”. . At the same time, this move by the United States has also helped Iran’s top leaders further strengthen their determination to achieve political stability and solidarity.

Secondly, before Suleimani was assassinated, some internal contradictions in Iran due to economic difficulties did lead to large-scale demonstrations in some parts of Iran and political stability was challenged. The U.S. assassination of Suleimani, which has great prestige in Iran, violated international norms, which made the Iranian national group angry. With a strong anti-American sentiment, the already existing domestic crisis was quickly resolved, and the entire Iran was united under the banner of anti-American revenge.

Thirdly, the killing of Suleimani made the Shiites in the entire Middle East unprecedentedly united, and did an excellent job of mobilizing and uniting Shi’ites with strong anti-American sentiments but internally fragmented. This aspect has eased Iran ’s internal pressure in the Middle East, and it has also made the entire Middle East Shi’ite point directly at Israel and Sunni, so that the situation in the Middle East has shifted to a certain extent in favor of Iran.

It is precisely for the above reasons that we see that the Iranian government has publicized revenge in high profile despite severely condemning the US actions, but the actual actions have shown more rationality and calmness. After taking a “no casualty” missile attack on a U.S. military base in Iraq, it publicly signaled that “the revenge operation has been completed” and said it would not engage in war with the United States. Moreover, although the Iranian government once claimed to withdraw from the Iran nuclear agreement, it immediately declared that it was willing to maintain the Iran nuclear agreement and resolve the issue through negotiations if its conditions were met.

It can be seen that the assassination of Suleimani is an unintelligent act that far outweighs the benefits to the United States. Instead, it has brought some favorable factors to Iran as a “victim” and helped Iran to reverse the situation both inside and outside.