I was sitting on a bench, bathing in the rich sunshine of autumn morning glory, and began to imagine: the boat sailed past, filled with blue shadows under the ripe banana tree, is a river. I cast my thoughts into the river.
Suddenly, an inflated little sparrow jumped towards me in small steps, and two small eyes like black crystals looked at me. He kept skipping. I kept calling him, as if calling a puppy–the only call I remembered by chance–the little sparrow kept skipping.
I have nothing for him. I searched all my pockets and knew that I had nothing. I looked around to see if there was anything he could see. No. If he knew, I would tell him, “Wait, I’m going to my house, about a mile away, and I’ll be right back.” But he didn’t know me. Although I really hoped that he would stay with me, he gradually left, leaving only me with the afternoon that was about to disappear.
In just one day, the alarm on the spread of the global new crown pneumonia epidemic has escalated again: more than 1,000 confirmed cases in the United States, 9,000 confirmed cases in Iran, and over 10,000 confirmed cases in Italy! Encouraged by the Trump administration ’s economic stimulus plan, the U.S. stock market rebounded 1100 points on Tuesday after the biggest drop since the global financial crisis in 2008 on Monday, and international oil prices also rose strongly by 10%. But on Wednesday, Asian stock markets and U.S. stock index futures fluctuated again, indicating that the panic in the market will continue until the negative impact of the epidemic on the economy is clear. The Bank of England abruptly announced interest rate cuts on Wednesday in response to the epidemic. Outgoing Governor Carney and his successor Bailey comforted the public at a press conference on the same day that the impact of the epidemic on the economy will not be as bad as in 2008. The impact may be huge, but it must be short-lived. ” At the same time, China’s achievements in fighting the epidemic have also given continued impetus to the global fight against the epidemic. Singapore’s Lianhe Zaobao commented on Wednesday that “Xi Jinping’s inspection in Wuhan is the clearest signal of the end of the epidemic”; with the same ANZ economist predicting that “Chinese manufacturing will return to normal in the second week of April “.
The economic impact of the epidemic is beginning to show
On the 11th, the South Korean Composite Stock Price Index plummeted again, hitting a 4-year low. Most Asian stock markets fell, and the U.S. Dow opened down 700 points. Reuters said this was due to growing investor scepticism over Washington’s stimulus package to fight the new crown pneumonia epidemic. According to the Wall Street Journal on the 11th, Trump on the 10th proposed to suspend the collection of wage taxes during the epidemic to boost the economy, and hoped to help the most affected industries in the epidemic, including aviation and cruise lines. But the proposal to pay zero wages was rejected in Congress on the 10th. The White House had previously predicted that the president would announce an economic stimulus plan after meeting with members of Congress on the 10th, but no major announcement has been made since the meeting, and some investors have not bought it.
“Crown virus may trigger a global recession,” the US News and World Report website said on the 10th, as the epidemic worsens, experts are increasingly worried about the economic downturn. Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi said that the possibility of the US economy falling into recession has reached 60% to 65%, and he said that just looking at China’s situation, we know that to let people feel comfortable going home It takes “some time” to get to work and resume all previous work. The report said that while the Trump administration is considering temporary measures to help businesses and support Wall Street sentiment, the United States is suffering trillions of dollars in deficits, “emergency situations like this show why the country needs a more robust Fiscal basis. ”
On Wednesday, the Australian Treasury warned,
The outbreak will reduce the country’s economic growth in the first quarter by at least 0.5 percentage points. The Italian government said on the 11th that it would allocate 25 billion euros to reduce the impact on the economy. This means that Italy’s 2020 budget deficit will definitely exceed 3% of the country’s GDP, which is the upper limit set by the European Union. The Italian Minister of Economy warned on the same day that the country’s GDP growth for the full year of 2020 will show a “significant contraction.” According to Reuters, on the 11th, due to the epidemic, major Japanese companies are adopting tighter pay policies and reached a consensus with the union that day. As the leader, Toyota Motor Corporation said on the 11th that it will reduce the average monthly salary increase of workers by 20% from last year’s salary increase, of which the basic salary part will not rise for the first time in the past 7 years.
The crisis in the shipping industry has deepened as the epidemic has spread. According to Bloomberg News reported on the 11th, “the virus is reducing the traffic of the ports of Los Angeles and Rotterdam”. It is reported that the port of Los Angeles is currently full of containers because the outbreak has disrupted the balance of travel between the United States and Asia. There are few ships to transport containers back to Asia. According to the British “Financial Times” reported on the 11th, the new crown epidemic continued to hit the global airlines. Norwegian Shuttle said on Tuesday that it was taking emergency measures, including temporarily cutting a significant portion of its staff, and would cancel 3,000 flights from mid-March to mid-June.
This is still the case in developed countries, and the impact of the epidemic on emerging countries will be even greater. Earlier under U.S. sanctions, Iran worked hard to increase exports of non-petroleum products through trade with neighboring countries. Now due to the impact of the epidemic, all neighboring countries have closed border ports with Iran, which makes Iran’s economy more difficult. According to the Vice Chairman of the Iran Chamber of Commerce, the outbreak will cost Iran 164 million dollars a day. The continuation of the epidemic will cause many small factories and small service industries to go bankrupt.
This time is essentially different from 2008
“During the new crown pneumonia outbreak, the Trump administration’s stock market recommendations have always looked bad.” Yahoo News ironically said on the 10th that the Dow fell from 2014 to 23851 on Monday, the largest one-day drop in history, and two weeks ago, Trump issued an optimistic assessment of the investment outlook. Director of the White House National Economic Council Kudlow also suggested: “The virus story will not last forever … I highly recommend that you take a closer look at the stock market, which is much cheaper than a week or two ago.” On the day Kudlow spoke, the Dow fell 1031 points. Closed at 27912. In just two weeks, the Dow fell another 4,000 points when Kudlow spoke.
CNN said on the 11th that the free fall of the stock market may not be an accurate reflection of the economy, but if the epidemic continues to spread and cannot be effectively controlled by April, consumers and supply chains will not recover quickly. May cause a general economic recession.
However, analysts point out that the economic turmoil caused by the new crown pneumonia epidemic is still fundamentally different from the 2008 financial crisis. “USA Today” said on the 11th, “The stock market has plummeted, the shadow of the economic recession has grown, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates and government stimulus measures-it feels like 2008 again”, but “everyone can breathe,” the report said that although the current It is unclear what the epidemic will ultimately cause, but neither will the economic disruption or persistence of the epidemic be like the historic economic downturn of 2007-2009. The article quoted experts as saying that the crisis was “closer to natural disasters” than “caused by years of deep-rooted economic weakness” and not “systemic defects”, so even if the economy is in recession, it is likely to be “transient “. According to the article, at the end of 2007, Americans only saved 3.6% of their income, while Americans currently save 8% of their income, and household debt is at an historically low level, which means that they can cope with the short-term downturn. The Bank of England 11 unexpectedly cut interest rates by 0.5 percentage points to help the economy fight the impact of the new crown virus epidemic. The rate cut is the first time the Bank of England has taken action outside its normal plan since the 2008 financial crisis. Governor Carney said on the same day that the epidemic was “a different form of shock than in 2008 … if handled properly, there would be no reason for this shock to become the situation in 2008 that cost many countries almost 10 years.” Chang announced on Wednesday a £ 30 billion package to tackle the new crown pneumonia epidemic. Prime Minister Johnson announced on Wednesday that emergency legislation will be in place to ensure that workers who are forced to remain isolated at home can receive sick pay from day one. Earlier, the 27 European Union countries decided at a video conference on Tuesday to launch an anti-epidemic fund with a total value of 25 billion euros.
On the 11th, in order to prevent the spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the Cabinet Committee of the Japanese House of Representatives passed a bill allowing the Japanese Prime Minister to declare the country into an “emergency state” if necessary, which means that the Abe government has the right to request local governments under the “emergency state” Implement central government orders such as restrictions on going out and suspension of classes. According to Reuters, Australia is preparing to launch a multi-billion dollar economic stimulus plan on Thursday, which includes setting up a fever clinic and providing free video calls to patients starting this Friday.
Tan Desai: China’s epidemic has reversed
Although countries are fighting the epidemic with unprecedented strength, the epidemic is still spreading rapidly in some countries. According to the New York Times, as of Tuesday night local time, more than 1,000 people have been infected with the new crown virus in the United States. Previous cases have been concentrated in Washington, California and New York. On Tuesday, Michigan, Massachusetts, Colorado and other states have also declared a state of emergency. New York announced the establishment of a quarantine area on the outskirts of the city, and the National Guard was deployed to help clean and deliver food. As of 13:00 on the 11th local time, the number of confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia in Spain reached 2128, an increase of more than 1,000 in two days, jumping to “second in Europe”, second only to Italy, the total number of confirmed cases in France on that day was 1,784, and the total number of confirmed cases in Germany It also reached 1565 cases.
“The situation in Italy today may happen in any country tomorrow,” reports on the US VOX website on the 11th expressed such concerns. At the same time, China ’s anti-epidemic battlefield continues to deliver positive energy to the world. World Health Organization Director-General Tan Desai told reporters on the 10th that the epidemic in China is now “significantly decreasing” and the virus is “retreating.” “We are glad that the epidemic situation has reversed.” He called on the international community to make full use of the “window of opportunity” China has won to curb the spread of the virus as soon as possible.
The Wall Street Journal said on the 11th that Xi Jinping ’s inspection of Wuhan on the 10th showed that the Chinese government believes that the domestic epidemic situation in China has been basically controlled. . “Russian News” on the 10th published an article entitled “China has reached a turning point in the fight against the epidemic”, saying that in most regions of China, the incidence of new coronary pneumonia has approached zero. At the same time, China’s economy began to recover. More than 95% of financial institutions and more than 90% of logistics resumed work. The recovery rate of small and micro enterprises nationwide exceeds 50%. More and more foreign observers acknowledge that the epidemic has not damaged the foundation of China’s economic development and has limited impact on China’s economy. China’s recovery will bring new opportunities for China and its partners. UBS analysts said in an interview with US financial website CNBC on the 10th that the new crown pneumonia epidemic in China “has passed its worst period.” However, analysts have also warned that the proportion of imported cases in China is increasing, and with the resumption of work in offices and factories, China must strictly prevent the resurgence of the epidemic.