No one expected that this would happen in the beginning of 2020.
The outbreak of the new type of coronavirus pneumonia came unexpectedly, and many enterprises encountered “black swan”, especially many small and micro businesses that were bleakly managed. Kearney’s report states that the retail catering industry alone will cause economic losses of 1.5 trillion to 3 trillion yuan. Challenges exist objectively. Many people can survive through self-help and government assistance, but not all of them.
However, the special scene created by the epidemic is still valuable. It tears open the gaps between many traditional formats and models, and has more room for new things to thrive. It also exposes many of the shortcomings of the capabilities of the business sector, reminding us Many unheeded opportunities, especially in the medical field.
Senior officials said that the fight against the new crown pneumonia epidemic was a major test of the national governance system and capacity. As far as commercial companies are concerned, this is also a big test, testing the basic skills of daily operations, the flexibility of the coming opportunities, and the ability to correct short-board exposure.
Opportunity in crisis
The real strong will find opportunities at risk.
17 years ago, the founder of Jingdong Liu Qiangdong did just that. The SARS outbreak in Beijing in 2003 interrupted his process of creating an offline chain network. He tried to sell goods on the online BBS forums. After obtaining the first batch of e-commerce customers, he took the initiative to avoid the strong rivals such as Lin’s offline and fully bet Online, eventually created a trillion GMV e-commerce giant. Without that decisive response, JD.
Liu Qiangdong’s story is more on the supply side, but just accidentally verified the feasibility of e-commerce. This epidemic seems to have touched more on the demand side. Many emerging business formats that have already existed suddenly ushered in a bursting time window and suddenly grew up.
For example, during the outbreak of the Internet, during the epidemic period, JD Health’s online consultation platform just opened, and the average daily consultation volume quickly rose to about 100,000 person-times. During peak hours, it can serve tens of thousands of users within an hour. Its high-level evaluation alone is a concentration stage, which shortens the time for market education by 5-10 years, and leverages the upstream and downstream industry chains to allow them to face the value of online medical channels.
For example, fresh food e-commerce, which is a territory that various online players can’t attack for a long time, is even called the last bastion of offline business. Just before the Spring Festival, many companies in the industry closed down. However, the epidemic caused a surge in orders and reached a large number of elderly people. Taking Ding Dong as an example, the average daily user growth reached 40,000, of which the natural growth accounted for more than 70%.
In addition, online office and online education, which have been discussed for many years, have also witnessed explosive growth. Online education of three representative listed companies-Good Future, New Oriental, and Who Learned? The market value skyrocketed, especially the last one. Even if it was short, the market value still exceeded 10 billion US dollars.
Even autonomous driving has gained an opportunity. During the epidemic, in order to achieve “zero contact”, unmanned vehicles began to appear in a variety of application scenarios, supporting the cleaning and disinfection of quarantine and isolation areas, food delivery and intelligent intelligent unmanned services in the country. . The epidemic has inspired the industry. It will take time for the application of driverless vehicles in the transportation field. In relatively closed communities, factories, hospitals, and other places, it can be engaged in simple food delivery, transportation, cleaning, disinfection, etc. Work and do a good job.
However, what is more critical is whether the users and scenarios captured by this epidemic can be retained or solidified after returning to normal. This is the real challenge. Taking fresh food e-commerce as an example, a large number of elderly people have weak Internet habit and are price-sensitive. How to hold them together?
The continued development of many innovative models also requires patience. Taking Internet healthcare as an example, it may involve the docking of the entire medical insurance system.
Many people believe that SARS in 2003 drove the explosive growth of online retail, which indeed verified the possibility and imagination of development. However, at that time, there were less than 60 million Chinese Internet users, and the penetration rate of online shopping was also very low. Alipay went online in October of that year, and Liu Qiangdong received financing. In 2007, four years later, he waited two or three years. JD.com and online shopping are widely known.
The real outbreak of e-commerce occurred after the internet infrastructure was complete and the penetration rate of Internet access equipment (PC, mobile phone) increased. Meanwhile, the chain model of Gome and Suning has been a stream of retail owners for a long time, and the industry has also washed out in the sand. A lot of people. Therefore, Jingdong and the SARS epidemic have a dramatic connection, but the causal relationship is not as close as imagined.
Therefore, in the special period of the epidemic, the window of opportunity is opened, and the quality of the enterprise itself remains to be tested, for example, the sensitivity of its strategy, the stability of its operations, and the precision of its management. It is also express delivery. This time, the double harvest of SF’s word-of-mouth business illustrates this point.
The new crown pneumonia epidemic is also an amplifier, exposing the shortcomings of the capabilities of many industries, especially in the medical field of treating diseases and saving people.
The most worrying thing is medicine.
Although two commonly used prescription drugs, Abidol and chloroquine phosphate, have entered the diagnosis and treatment plan, we have also made a commercial interpretation. The new use of old drugs is safe and cost-controllable, has greater accessibility, and is more in line with national conditions. During this time, people talked about Remdesivir, an antiviral drug under development, and some WHO officials even said that it was the only effective medicine for new coronary pneumonia.
This broad-spectrum antiviral drug was developed by Gilead Sciences in the United States and was originally intended to treat diseases such as Ebola and the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome. A Phase III clinical study has been launched in China on February 3. The results are expected to be announced in April. Gilead’s own clinical trials will not be announced as soon as May.
It is premature to say that Redecive is a potent drug. However, its producer Gilead still deserves our admiration.
This U.S. pharmaceutical company is not an established brand. It was established in 1987 and only has a history of 33 years. However, its research capabilities are strong, and “explosive products” have emerged: the research and development of antiviral drug “Duffy” in 1999: the first listed in 2006 Atripla, a single-drug treatment for AIDS, turned AIDS into a “quasi-chronic disease”; the blockbuster oral drug “Sovadia” launched in 2013 directly defeated hepatitis C.
In contrast, there are still too few pharmaceutical companies that do solid research and have hard-core technology. For example, in the field of infectious diseases, Zhong Nanshan did not deny that “there is still insufficient attention and lack of continuous scientific research. It is simply impossible to develop a new drug in the short term and it needs long-term accumulation.”
Lack of long-term research is far more than just medicine.
For example, in the field of nucleic acid detection reagents, false negative infections frequently occur and the detection efficiency is low. Some experts have publicly stated that “the detection rate of nucleic acids for real cases is less than 30% to 50%”, and many people have begun to question nucleic acid detection. The clinical application value of technology has caused the diagnostic industry to fall into the biggest crisis in 20 years. Some people in the industry are thinking that after the SARS virus in 2003, the research and development of coronavirus-like reagents did not continue, which caused the reagents to be rushed to the shelves, so it was so passive.
Because of this outbreak, we found that many critical medical equipment turned out to be so limited.
Take ECMO (Extracorporeal Pulmonary Oxygenation, commonly known as artificial heart-lung machine), which has repeatedly appeared in emergency scenes. As many patients die, ECMO is the last expectation. At a critical juncture, we can take a patient from death However, there are only about 400 units in the country (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan regions). The reliance on imports of major equipment and consumables has also increased the cost of use, which has made it impossible to rescue more people.
For negative pressure ambulances used to transport infectious patients, the number of production and sales in the country is only about one hundred a year, so that the relevant departments are fully mobilizing and organizing production. Manufacturers work overtime. The capacity of the circulation was quite tense at one time.
If it is said that the shortage of masks and protective clothing is in the millions or tens of millions, and the production capacity can not be met for a while, it is still understandable. Then, the annual output and even the total stock of these medical equipment is actually hundreds. Still a bit surprising. Among them, there are factors of market regulation and the reasons for insufficient preparation of emergency materials, which can reflect some problems and create many opportunities.
The epidemic will eventually pass, leaving many business exam questions that will take a long time to answer.