Who is to blame for Japan’s poor epidemic prevention?

The custom of “diners” in the wealthy families of ancient China has also influenced Japan. During Japan’s transition from the Warring States Period to the Edo Period, the daimyo (feudal lord) raised some “Mikachu” equivalent to diners. Among them, there were 800 people under Toyotomi Hideyoshi in the 16th century.

In an article on February 19th, “The Asahi Shimbun” told such a story:

Among Toyotomi’s Mikami, there is a man named Zenglu Rishinzaemon (also known as Suzuki Sakauchi). This man looks dull, but he is actually humorous and intelligent. Once Toyotomi wanted to reward diners and let everyone tell them what they wanted. When it was Zeng Luli’s turn, he screamed for a long time and said: “There is a temple called Mitsui Temple on a hillside in Ojin. There are 51 steps from the bottom of the mountain to the entrance of the temple. The reward of hope is that your Majesty is on the top. Put one grain of rice on the steps, two grains of rice on the next step, 4 grains of rice on the third step, and so on.”

After Toyotomi heard this, he felt that it was simple, so he agreed. When the other retainers calculated the total amount, they couldn’t help being surprised.

The author of the “Asahi Shimbun” article made calculations in a modern way. The weight of a grain of rice is 0.02 grams. By analogy with 2 to the 2nd power and 4 to the 4th power, at the 51st step, Zeng Luli asked Toyotomi for a total of 45 million tons of rice. Of course, Japan in the Warring States Period did not have this output, but now that it has fully modernized its agriculture, its annual output of rice is only 8 million tons. In Japan more than 400 years ago, 45 million tons was certainly an astronomical figure.

Mr. Zeng Luli, who is in the wood, generally wants to tell Toyotomi, don’t think that a grain of rice is very small, if you use the power algorithm to calculate, the result will definitely be unexpected.

After entering February, Japan has finally changed from 7,000 to 8,000 confirmed cases of new coronary disease every day to only around 2,000 a day. It seems that the spread of the epidemic has been brought under control again. How big is the scale of the infection of patients with the new crown? The figure estimated by Japanese infectious disease experts is not in the same order of magnitude as the figure imagined by politicians and the media. Politicians hope to maintain economic development. The media emphasizes that tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands, or even more than 200,000 people are diagnosed in the United States every day, but they can hold on. Thousands of people in Japan should be better controlled.

Japan has been ridiculing the rumors of certain Asian countries for more than a year, and quarantining patients when they are sick. It has also “foreseen” that such a country’s economy will definitely experience a severe recession, thinking that Japan will have good luck again and again, and it will be able to control things .

February is also the time to publish various statistics. Affected by the new coronavirus, Japan’s GDP in 2020 has decreased by 4.8% compared with the previous year. Japanese politicians and the media’s hopes for economic growth have completely failed. Instead, Japan’s neighboring countries mocked by the media. Some countries have maintained positive economic growth. This has made Japanese public opinion very contradictory: on the one hand, they have lost confidence in Japan’s epidemic prevention. On the other hand, in the envy, jealousy and hatred of neighboring countries, the elements of hatred have become more and more, and they have become completely silent about cooperation with neighboring countries in epidemic prevention and control, vaccines and drug development.

Currently, Japan has also established relevant expert committees. As far as possible, experts who do not agree with the government’s opinions are removed from the committee. As a result, there are fewer people like Zeng Luli who can see the big and foresee the crisis. .

Refusing to follow the predictions of experts, or the lack of experts who use vivid metaphors like Zeng Luli to explain the problem, these make it difficult for Japanese politicians to make accurate judgments on epidemic prevention, resulting in the current extremely passive situation. .