In the future, climate refugees will be “weaponized”?

In order to call people to pay more attention to climate issues, the World Wide Fund for Nature and the Prado Museum in Spain have re-interpreted several world-famous paintings to warn the world of the seriousness of the climate change problem. The majestic and majestic Philip IV who was originally riding on horseback was half-submerged due to the rising sea level and became difficult to move.

In order to call people to pay more attention to climate issues, the World Wide Fund for Nature and the Prado Museum in Spain have re-interpreted several world-famous paintings to warn the world of the seriousness of the climate change problem. The majestic and majestic Philip IV who was originally riding on horseback was half-submerged due to the rising sea level and became difficult to move.

In Greek mythology, Charon, the boatman of Hades, was responsible for crossing the dead to the Styx. In the original painting, there is a beautiful view of green mountains and green waters, and the two sides of the bank are full of vitality and greenery. But after climate change, the river became dry and the land cracked like a desert.

In Greek mythology, Charon, the boatman of Hades, was responsible for crossing the dead to the Styx. In the original painting, there is a beautiful view of green mountains and green waters, and the two sides of the bank are full of vitality and greenery. But after climate change, the river became dry and the land cracked like a desert.

  In the movie “Future Water World” released in 1995, there is no land, and there is a vast ocean everywhere. The male protagonist played by Kevin Costner purifies his urine to quench his thirst. He also treasures a few clods, just like a gold mining miner treasures gold. This Hollywood movie believes that audiences are ready to accept reality: human beings start migrating as climate refugees, and they will certainly end history as climate refugees. But in fact, it is not. Many people use the Internet to watch the forest burned and the coastline flooded from a safe distance. However, the number of people with environmental privileges is shrinking, and the increase in climate refugees is the first sign that climate change will affect the world situation.
  The Internal Displacement Monitoring Center is an organization funded by the United States and the European Union. According to the organization’s estimates, an average of 24 million people have been displaced by climate-related events each year in the past ten years. Perhaps people in the future will find it difficult to understand our current worship of economic growth, and will be surprised that we do not know that humans live on a fragile planet with limited resources.
  Many scholars believe that the earth has entered a new geological age-the Anthropocene. The Anthropocene does not have an accurate start year, and it may have started with the global impact of human activities on the climate and ecosystem at the end of the 18th century. As humans have become more and more comfortable in controlling the earth’s resources, the term climate has become abstract. The climate is like the atmosphere, as if it can be modified according to human needs regardless of its own needs.
  Now, climate has once again become a recognized protagonist, and it seems that any major event is inseparable from its influence. For example, in order to explain the decline of the Roman Empire, two classic works-St. Augustine’s “City of God” and Edward Gibbon’s “History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire” were born. But American scholar Kyle Harper believes that their explanation is wrong. In the book “The Fate of Rome: Climate, Disease, and the End of the Empire”, Harper combines grand historical narratives with cutting-edge climate science and Genetic research is intertwined, depicting that the fate of the Roman Empire was determined not only by emperors, soldiers, and “barbarians”, but also by volcanic eruptions, solar cycles, climate instability, and devastating viruses and bacteria.
  For example, the author believes that part of the reason for the demise of the Roman Empire was the inability to repel or absorb “climate refugees on horseback.” In the 4th century AD, the Huns on the Eurasian steppes faced the worst drought in two thousand years. They could not rely on the grassland to feed their horses, so nomadic tribes had to expand outward.
  During this rare dry period, the Huns not only plundered the Han Empire in the East, but also harassed the Roman Empire in the West. The Huns’ cavalry is superb. The Roman historian Amianus Marcelinus complained: “They are not suitable for infantry fighting at all. They are almost stuck on horsebacks.” Since the Huns are nomads, they have no consciousness at all. To the value of Rome’s infrastructure, so it was razed to the ground without hesitation. Unlike previous barbarian invasions, the women and children of nomadic tribes followed the army because it was the climate disaster that drove them forward, thus continuously producing the next generation of fighters.
  In the eyes of the ancients, climate refugees only existed in foreign countries. Herodotus tells the story of how ancient Greeks and Egyptians thought each other was a climate victim in his book “History.” Herodotus went to Egypt to conduct field investigations. He wanted to know everything about Egypt: how much water is stored in this country, how much water has evaporated from the sun, and how the Nile is flooded seasonally. The Nile River irrigates most of Egypt, and Egyptian farmers hardly need to do anything. But Herodotus predicted that when the river sand deposits on the delta accumulate to a certain extent, the Egyptians will be in trouble. He found that the Egyptians also pity the Greeks, because their harvest depends on rainfall. Herodotus wrote: “If the gods do not rain on them, but let the drought last for a long time, the Greeks will be destroyed by starvation. Because they actually have no other source of water besides relying on the gift of Zeus. “The loser of the environmental game will appear at the door of the winner as a climate refugee, ready to worship the new god.
Myths and science about climate disasters

  The ancient Greeks, Romans, Chinese, Hebrews, and Indians have all suffered countless earthquakes and tsunamis, and their homes have been destroyed and become refugees. These disasters occurred in a completely different era from the present, and the same thing is happening today, but in a hidden way.
  For example, behind the US-Mexico border conflict, there are also shadows of climate disasters. In the past few decades, the average temperature in Central America has risen by about 2 degrees Fahrenheit, making it difficult to grow coffee in low altitude areas that were once suitable for coffee cultivation. Some farmers have to find land at higher altitudes to grow other crops, or change careers or relocate. Climate change is not the only factor that determines migration, but it may be a tipping point for people to migrate.

  The tension between Iran and the United States is also related to the increasing number of displaced people in Iran. Lake Urmia in Iran was once the largest lake in the Middle East, but it has shrunk to about one-fifth of its original size. The cities affected by this continue to put pressure on the Tehran government. In the Harmon Wetlands in eastern Iran, the oasis that was once surrounded by fishing villages has now dried up. The Harmon Water Crisis caused 600,000 environmental refugees to flee to the north, and possible conflicts between these potential environmental refugees and local residents pose a threat to the social stability of Iran. To make matters worse, the pistachio farms in southern Iran are unsustainable, and pistachios were once Iran’s main export product.
  The cause of the Syrian civil war also includes drought. From 2007 to 2010, the severe drought in Syria caused a certain degree of instability in the country’s situation. According to statistics, in 2007, the rainy season in northern Syria basically did not arrive, and the situation worsened in the second year. It experienced the worst in history. Winter. The drought has led to a sharp drop in wheat production, and food prices have doubled and increased. Many farmers are unable to make ends meet and a large number of refugees have been produced. These rural refugees all went to the southern cities, and Syrian cities have already gathered more than 1.5 million refugees from Iraq. The rapid increase in population has brought great pressure, and the government has not dealt with food, health, employment, etc. The problem caused many people to be dissatisfied, and eventually a rebellion broke out and a civil war broke out. The Syrian civil war has caused about 1 million Syrians to flee to Europe. Their arrival has affected the political ecology of Europe and promoted the rise of far-right parties.

Most of the islands in Kiribati, an island nation in the central Pacific Ocean, are in danger of being submerged by the sea.

In the past ten years, an average of 24 million people have been displaced by climate-related events each year.

The masterpiece “Migrant Mother” by Dorothea Lange, an outstanding American documentary photographer in the 20th century.

  Climate refugees are not just victims. For centuries, Fulani herders have driven cattle and sheep in the entire Sahel zone from west to east, the semi-arid zone on the southern edge of the Sahara Desert, including nomads in northern Nigeria. Historically, the relationship between Nigerian nomads, settled farmers and the natural environment has been relatively harmonious. With the intensification of climate change, the dry season is getting longer and the rainy season is getting shorter and shorter. For more than half a century, many areas in northern Nigeria have become deserts or semi-deserts. The deterioration of the natural environment directly affects agriculture and human production. The activities had an impact and forced Fulani herdsmen to continue to migrate south to find grassland and water sources. This situation triggered disputes with settled farmers in the central region. In 2016, the number of people who died in the conflict between farmers and herdsmen in Nigeria was estimated to be around 2,500, which is more than the number of people who died due to the violent activities of the extremist organization Boko Haram during the same period.
  Other examples appear in the Americas. At the beginning of the 19th century, a branch of the Sioux, the Lakota, was driven out of the village where it had settled for generations and lost its farmland. Their response to the French, British, and later American invasions was to migrate west, breed horses, practice gun use, and became nomadic predators. They controlled trade routes, slaughtered large numbers of buffaloes and obtained vaccines from Europeans that were not available to other Indian tribes, thus gaining a dominant position. The Lakota said in their “Winter Days” that they became nomads and were bewitched by the god of liars.
  Climate change may also give birth to religious beliefs. Now we know nothing about the details of the large-scale migration of early humans out of the African continent. Scientists have speculated that the sharp drop in temperature may have forced humans to migrate. The environmental pressures suffered by early humans can be known from the study of tooth enamel, which, like growth rings, can indicate the period of starvation and provide clues to human diet, such as whether the teeth have chewed grains and meat. Current evidence shows that early humans passed through today’s Djibouti from the African savannah into the Middle East and the coastal areas of India, initially feeding on fruits, leaves, shellfish and slow-moving animals. In a world where every hill and every torrential rain is shrouded in mystery and charm, humans may need the guidance of the gods to enter a new land. Therefore, the budding of religion was bred in the first climatic immigrants.
Climate refugees plant the consequences for the “human crisis”

  In 2019, the World Bank released the most pessimistic forecast for global climate change. The report pointed out: In the next 30 years, more than 143 million people worldwide may be forced to become climate refugees. Among them, the three most densely populated regions in the world— -South Asia, Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa are the most severely threatened. Scientists believe that this is beginning to lay the consequences for the “human crisis.”
  Currently, people are leaving the equatorial region to enter a milder climate. The irony is that Alberta in Canada, Minnesota in the United States and Siberia in Russia were once vast and sparsely populated places. Each place tried its best to attract its own population, but with little success. Only in the Soviet period did the population of Siberia expand, while the northern regions of Canada and the United States needed to be attracted by the gold rush, but after these crazes, only “ghost cities” and displaced indigenous people were often left behind. As the climate warms, these areas may play a more important role.
  The current refugee asylum system is based on the asylum of the Second World War. French doctor and sociologist Didier Fassin investigated the history of refugee asylum applications in France over the past few decades and found that it was easier to obtain approval in the 1970s when applications were submitted in the name of “political persecution.” In the 1990s, it was easier for applications that claimed to have violated the human rights of individuals to be approved. After the “9.11” incident, victims of certain human rights violations (such as female circumcision) have a greater chance of obtaining asylum than “political refugees” (such as Kurds from Turkey). So, in the near future, can climate disasters also become a reason to apply for asylum? On January 20, 2020, the United Nations Human Rights Commission made a landmark ruling that it is illegal for the government to send “climate refugees” back to countries that may be threatened by the climate crisis.
  If countries in temperate regions are unwilling to accept the obligation to accept climate victims, those victims may have a way to deal with it. Countries in the equatorial region have valuable cards in their hands, such as lithium, oil, and uranium, which are needed in other parts of the world to make cars, phones, and atomic bombs. At least in theory, the governments of sub-Saharan African countries can impose severe penalties on climate change caused by temperate regions by detaining these precious resources.
  Developing countries suffering from environmental pollution will not remain silent forever. In 2019, Malaysia decided to send plastic garbage ships from Canada back to Canada. Prior to that, the Philippines had also filed lawsuits with the Canadian government for hundreds of containers of garbage from Canada for several years, and even recalled its ambassador to Canada in protest. According to estimates by the Malaysian government, the so-called recycling methods of plastic waste disposal companies operating underground are simply dumping the plastic waste into rivers, burying them in the soil or burning them, causing serious water, air and soil pollution. For many years, China has been the receiving and processing country of plastic waste and industrial waste in Western countries, that is, imported “foreign waste”. However, with the deterioration of water, air and soil pollution, my country has banned the import of plastic waste from 2017.
  International coordination on climate change is a difficult task and faces no small challenge. What will happen in the future? The most optimistic estimate is a healthy competition among various countries to create the best environment for their residents and form a healthy competition for climate protection in the world. The worst estimate is that there will be a resource war in the future, and the “weaponization” of climate refugees. The ancient Greeks and the ancient Egyptians could not sympathize with each other, but repelled each other, and the climate refugees had nothing but thirst, hunger, and burning skin. They would pay any price for water, food, and shade.