An important element of style judgment in the computer industry is industry comparison. The overall industrial chain of the computer industry is flat, with high opacity, moderate growth rate but strong sustainability and large space. It has great flexibility when the beta environment is suitable and the industry is relatively dominant. In a weak economic recession, most industries have poor growth rates, and the computer industry can show a comparative advantage in terms of prosperity. In a weak recession, liquidity expectations are generally relatively stable, and ample liquidity dividends usually flow to those with long-term space. industry, so a weak recession is the best beta environment for computers.
The current public offering positions are at the historical bottom level since 2013, and the PE valuation is at the historical median, with reasonable upward space. The PS valuation of small companies in the Shenwan computer sector has rebounded from the bottom. It is expected that the PE in 2022 will be about 27 times, which is still at a reasonably low water level, and there is room for improvement. The cash flow of large-cap companies is significantly better than the profit, which reflects the bargaining power of the industry chain brought about by its know-how accumulation and scale effect, and its sustainable growth is becoming more and more clear.
It is recommended to focus on the configuration of subdivision leaders in emerging directions. 1) The domestic computer industry is gradually transforming from the past integrator model to productization, cloud, and artificial intelligence, and platform-based companies are accelerating. Cloud computing is in the growth stage, AI is approaching the critical point of penetration, and the cornerstone of IT is constantly being consolidated. 2) IT innovation directions emerge in an endless stream, and the leaders in emerging directions and subdivisions are likely to generate continuous excess returns. For example, Orient Fortune, the leader in subdivisions, has an increase of 3,529% in the 10-year period from 2011 to November 29, 2021; Glodon and iFlytek in the direction of cloud computing have yielded 528% and 515% in the past 10 years. 3) Review the historically advantageous BETA range of the computer industry. Emerging directions have the dual dividends of economic acceleration and cognitive acceleration, and leading companies can have sustained earnings at high static valuations.
Dual-carbon IT, automotive intelligence, and data security are the core innovation directions. 1) In 2021, the national new energy strategy will enter the harvest period, and the prosperity of the new energy industry will rise rapidly. Relevant directions also force the reform of energy information system, and new energy IT is imperative. Compared with companies in the new energy industry itself, computer beneficiary companies have the characteristics of low valuation, the prosperity is about to accelerate, long-term moat and sustainability are better, and it is possible to continuously increase the valuation. 2) The intelligent cockpit has entered the critical point of deepening. The increase in chip computing power provides fertile ground for the implementation of high-end intelligent driving. The increase in the intelligent penetration rate of the automotive industry has made the decoupling of software and hardware a long-term goal. Therefore, related domain controllers, operating systems, and upper-layer software have become Just need. 3) The advent of the “Data Security Law” and the “Personal Information Protection Law” has made data security enter the first year of the industry and become the core field of the post-Internet and post-informatization era. In the short term, the data security market space is expected to exceed 10 billion in 2023. In the long run, the potential space is expected to reach 100 billion, and the relevant leading industrialization process is expected to exceed expectations.
AI, asset management IT, cloud computing industry trends are stable and clear, suitable for long-term investment. 1) AI is accelerating into the growth phase, and the penetration rate is approaching the critical point. AI has a natural scale advantage and is the foundation of technologies such as smart cars and Metaverse. Currently, there are valuation depressions, and it is recommended to pay attention to relevant leaders. 2) With the great development of the capital market, the continuous release of policy dividends, the degree of institutionalization is expected to continue to increase, and the leaders of Internet asset management and financial IT will clearly benefit. 3) Cloud computing is the main line represented by the 10-year long-term cycle, and the sustainability of growth is constantly verified. After rapid development, it can be transformed into a reasonable PE within two years. Since 2021, there has been a certain degree of correction and digestion in the valuation of domestic cloud computing, and long-term attention and layout can be carried out.
Looking ahead to 2022, we believe that the technology industry is expected to usher in new changes.
First, the innovation of applications seems to be at a new crossroads, facing a bottleneck. However, as the penetration rate of 5G end users and 5G network users gradually exceeds 30%, this will lay a good foundation for the emergence of new 5G applications. We are full of expectations for the “metaverse” with VR/AR and other technologies as the underlying technology. Although the development may still take a long time, the prospects are expected to be optimistic, and the Internet of Things and cloud computing, as the underlying supporting technologies of the Metaverse, are also expected to usher in new development impetus. From a historical point of view, the proposal of every new technology concept, as long as it conforms to the development trend, will attract the attention of the capital market, such as cloud computing, Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, etc. In fact, it is still moving towards a grand vision so far, but investment Opportunities are never lacking. Therefore, we believe that although the metaverse may actually be far away, the investment in the capital market may be very close, and thematic investment opportunities need to be paid attention to. In the IoT sector, the overall performance in 2021 is relatively good. We believe that in 2022, we can focus more on the supply chain of intelligent and connected vehicles. As vehicles become electrified, intelligent, and connected, Chinese companies are expected to gain more development in the industrial transformation. opportunity. The cloud computing sector has undergone adjustment for nearly a year and a half, and the margin is expected to gradually improve, which can be paid attention to.
Second, in 2021, the compensatory consumption after the global epidemic has gradually eased, and the superimposed supply chain chaos has promoted the sharp rise in upstream raw material and transportation costs. At the same time, the RMB has appreciated significantly, resulting in substantial pressure on the profit margins of manufacturing midstream companies. Looking forward to 2022, we believe that everything will gradually return to normal, and even we see that downstream consumer demand is generally weak, and many manufacturing midstream companies have high inventories in order to stock up in advance. Some of them have gradually reduced their inventories since the third quarter of 2021. Therefore, , the reversal of supply and demand may be “in a flash”. In this regard, we are optimistic about the recovery of the manufacturing midstream, and most companies in the communications industry belong to the manufacturing midstream, and 2022 is worth looking forward to.
Third, on September 22, 2021, Premier Li Keqiang of the State Council chaired an executive meeting of the State Council to deliberate and approve the “14th Five-Year Plan” for new infrastructure construction. We believe that new infrastructure will become the focus of investment in the “14th Five-Year Plan” cycle, but in addition to the well-known 5G network construction and Gigabit optical network upgrade, we should pay more attention to the imminent development of satellite Internet, smart grid, energy storage The construction of new energy sources such as wind power, wind power and photovoltaics is also the highlight of the new infrastructure, and the investment subjects of these new infrastructures are clear, and the in-depth layout of many companies in the communication industry is worthy of attention.