Early elections, the era of “new Kazakhstan” officially opened
On November 20, 2022, Kazakhstan will hold early presidential elections. Preliminary statistics show that the incumbent President Tokayev won the election with a relatively large margin. According to Kazakhstan’s political agenda, after the presidential election, a new parliamentary lower house election will be held soon and a new government will be formed, so as to completely complete the first power reorganization after Tokayev became a full-fledged president, and then concentrate on Under the leadership of Tokayev, fully implement the “New Kazakhstan” development strategy.
promote reform
In March 2019, Kazakhstan’s first president Nazarbayev announced his resignation, and Tokayev, who was then the speaker of the upper house of parliament, became the acting president. In April of the same year, Tokayev announced an early presidential election, and was successfully elected on June 9 with nearly 71% of the vote for a five-year term.
In early January 2022, due to dissatisfaction with the rise in the price of liquefied petroleum gas, protests and demonstrations took place in Zhanaojin City, an oil-producing area in Kazakhstan, and eventually turned into a nationwide riot. Prior to this, although Nazarbayev gave up the presidency, he retained the chairmanship of the National Security Council of Kazakhstan and had the power to lead and coordinate domestic powerful departments. After the “January riots”, Nazarbayev handed over all the power in his hands, and Kazakhstan’s “dual-core politics” state that lasted for more than two years came to an end. Kayev era”, I call this the era of the “Second Kazakhstan Republic” or the era of “New Kazakhstan”.
On January 11, 2022, Tokayev delivered a speech at the plenary meeting of the lower house of parliament, stating that he would formulate a new reform plan based on full communication with civil society. On March 16, Tokayev delivered a State of the Union address entitled “New Kazakhstan: The Road to Innovation and Modernization” at the joint meeting of the upper and lower chambers of the parliament, expounding the various aspects of the reform. Subsequently, Kazakhstan established a constitutional reform committee, and proceeded to amend the constitution according to the State of the Union address. On June 5, Kazakhstan held a referendum on constitutional amendments. In the end, the Constitutional Amendment was passed with a support rate of 77.18% and took effect immediately. This constitutional amendment involves more than 30 amendments and additions to Kazakhstan’s current constitution, including adjusting the power distribution of the president and the parliament, reforming the parliamentary election method, increasing the constitutional court, and adding three local administrative divisions.
On September 1, Tokayev delivered a state-of-the-nation address entitled “A Just Country, a United Nation, and a Welfare Society” in both houses of parliament, in which he proposed to hold early presidential and parliamentary elections. According to the president’s proposal, the upper and lower houses of the Kazakh parliament passed the “Amendment and Supplementary Act to the Constitution of the Republic of Kazakhstan” on September 16. On September 21, Tokayev signed a presidential decree, deciding to hold “non-routine presidential elections” on November 20.
two intentions
In this presidential election in Kazakhstan, at first 12 candidates including Tokayev submitted applications for election. Later, after the qualification review by the Kazakh Central Election Commission, only six candidates met the conditions for running for the election. Among them, except Except for Tokayev, the other five candidates come from social groups or political parties, and none of them have public office status.
Why is Tokayev eager to hold early presidential elections? Satbayev, an expert in Kazakh political analysis, believes that, first, based on the current domestic and foreign situation changes, Tokayev is worried that if the presidential election is held in 2024, he may face more variables, such as economic deterioration and further increase in environmental complexity. , the intensification of the great power game, new changes in the Ukraine crisis, etc., it is better to hold it at this time, so as to determine the power structure in the next seven years. The second is to adjust the positions of senior officials. After the “January riots”, although the Tokayev government made personnel adjustments and replaced nearly one-third of the officials above the deputy ministerial level, Kazakhstan’s parliament, government, agencies directly under the president, local agencies, and the ruling party, etc. There are still a large number of officials with rigid ideas in the ruling system. They are constrained by various social relations and systems, and they do not understand President Tokayev’s new policies and ideas thoroughly enough, which prevents many policy measures from being implemented in a timely and effective manner. Only when the presidential election is held in advance, and then a new parliamentary election is held and a new government is formed, can Tokayev conduct personnel deployment on a larger scale to ensure that various departments and institutions can implement reform measures more efficiently.
future test
Tokayev was born in Almaty in 1953. He has been engaged in diplomatic work for a long time and served as Kazakh foreign minister and prime minister. In March 2011, he was appointed as the Deputy Secretary-General of the United Nations. Since 2013, he has served as the Speaker of the Upper House of the Kazakh Parliament. In June 2019, he became the President of Kazakhstan. Judging from his ruling ideas, Tokayev strives to build a “listening” country and promote the development of the country’s multi-party system, political competition and diversity of opinions. Various reforms have always focused on “democracy” and “justice” A strong president, an influential parliament, and a responsible government” are the basic principles. Compared with the time when Nazarbayev was in power, the “Second Republic” led by Tokayev focused on anti-corruption and anti-monopoly, starting from solving the problems accumulated and left over from the past, hoping to get rid of the ills and straighten out the national governance system , improve the relationship between citizens, enterprises and the state, that is, establish a more balanced power system through decentralization, give full play to the enthusiasm of departments, localities and citizens, and provide everyone with equal opportunities and benefits by eliminating the political influence of oligarchs and families level playing field. These new concepts and ideas of state governance aim to redistribute the country’s political and economic resources, increase the breadth and depth of public participation in society, and adapt to Kazakhstan’s current social needs and public voices.
Despite continuing to promote reforms in the political and economic fields, in terms of diplomacy, the Tokayev government has always adhered to the basic principles of pragmatism, balance, and diversity in accordance with the “Kazakhstan Foreign Policy Concept (2020-2030)”. As Tokayev said in an interview with the media on November 20, considering Kazakhstan’s geostrategic position, economic scale, and the fact that many large multinational companies have entered the Kazakh market, Kazakhstan must pursue an all-round foreign policy of peace and abide by the Charter of the United Nations.
At present, the people of Kazakhstan have high hopes for Tokayev, and hope that the “New Kazakhstan” plan he proposed will bring more new atmosphere to the country. Many challenges, especially economic development. Under the current situation, the increase in Kazakhstan’s oil and gas export income can alleviate the impact of the new crown epidemic and geopolitical risks on the economy. However, the Fed’s continued interest rate hikes and the overall strengthening of the US dollar have triggered the return of global capital to developed countries, resulting in Kazakhstan’s reduction in external financing channels. , Coupled with factors such as high inflation, rising interest rates, and depreciation of the local currency, the risk of economic recession has increased.
China-Kazakhstan relations continue to consolidate and develop
China has always regarded Kazakhstan as one of the priority directions of its foreign policy. In September, when President Xi Jinping visited Kazakhstan for the first time since the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, he chose Kazakhstan, which shows the importance he attaches to Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan is an important partner in China’s joint construction of the “Belt and Road” initiative, the China-Kazakhstan Lianyungang logistics cooperation base, the “Korgos-Dongdaemun” dry port, the Aktau port along the Caspian Sea, and the “Western China-Western Europe” international transport corridor and other projects have been put into operation.
Tokayev is an old friend of the Chinese people. He has been learning Chinese since university, and he is familiar with and has affection for China. He is willing to continue to develop the traditional friendship between the two countries. Whether he was foreign minister, prime minister, or speaker of the upper house of parliament, he worked hard to promote China-Kazakhstan cooperation. After becoming president, he supported China on issues such as Xinjiang, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and the new crown epidemic. The permanent comprehensive strategic partnership between China and Kazakhstan was jointly determined with China when he visited China as president in 2019. 2022 is the 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Kazakhstan. Tokayev was once again elected president with a high number of votes. The relationship between the two countries is expected to reach a new level and open another “golden thirty years”.
