At present, new energy-related industries are the most promising and explosive fields of China’s economy in the future. This is the power of The Times. Each of us is a product of The Times.
New energy is the fastest growing industry. Since 2015, the production and sales volume of new energy vehicles in China have ranked first in the world for 8 consecutive years. It will hit a record high in 2021, reaching 3.52 million units, an increase of 1.6 times. In 2022, it is expected to sell around 6 million units and continue to double its growth, with a penetration rate of more than 20%. With GDP growth of only around 3% in 2022, new energy vehicles have again achieved double growth, such is the power of the trend, only 20 years ago real estate and the Internet can match.
According to the theory of S-shaped curve, it may take 10 or 20 years for the penetration rate of consumer goods to rise from 0% to 10%. However, when the penetration rate exceeds 10%, technological progress, consumer habits and infrastructure construction become increasingly perfect, and people’s doubts begin to fade, there will be an explosive growth.
We expect that in 10 years, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will exceed 70%, that is, the sales of new energy vehicles will account for more than 70% of all automobile sales.
More and more funds have been invested in the research and development of new energy vehicles, whose technology continues to advance and costs continue to fall.
Why is new energy vehicle growth spurt in recent years? The first is rapid technological progress, increasing range and improving safety. The second is the global environmental trend. On September 22, 2020, China made a solemn commitment to the world that it would achieve the goal of peaking carbon emissions by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060, which is also known as the “two-carbon” commitment. Finally, consumers’ recognition of new energy vehicles has improved. The explosion of new energy vehicles is the result of the superposition of policy, technology and market dividends, which can be said to be the right place at the right time.
Why does our country attach so much importance to the development of new energy industry? One is the commanding heights of major power competition, seize the major opportunities of the new energy revolution. The three major players of new energy in the world, the United States, Europe and China, are also the three economies with the best prospects for new energy vehicles. For example, this time, US President Joe Biden unveiled a $1.8 trillion infrastructure plan, a key part of which is taking a lead in the field of new energy. The UK has also launched a large-scale new energy development plan.
In the era of traditional cars, there is still a huge gap between China and Europe, the United States and even Japan in terms of market, technology and brand. However, world-class enterprises have been born in new-energy vehicles, including complete vehicles and core components such as batteries. China accounts for more than half of the world’s top 10 lithium battery enterprises, so it is possible for us to change lanes and overtake vehicles.
Another concern is national energy security. China imports 70% of its oil, 70% of which passes through the Strait of Malacca. In the era of global geopolitical turmoil, and oil is the blood of the industry in the previous era, so it is very important to vigorously develop new energy, the development of new energy vehicles, lithium electricity, photovoltaic, wind power, hydrogen energy, energy storage, to ensure our energy security.
Although China is short of oil and gas, there is one thing China is very rich, which is very conducive to the development of new energy vehicles. As we all know, there are vast Gobi and desert areas in central and western China, which are likely to be large-scale photovoltaic sites in the future.
Twenty years ago to buy a house is completely two fates, today in the dawn of the outbreak of new energy, not to invest in new energy is 20 years ago did not buy a house. This is my opinion, this is the power of The Times, each of us is but a product of The Times.
The new energy revolution has arrived. In 2022, BYD sold more than 2 million new energy vehicles, which is expected to become Toyota and Volkswagen in the era of new energy vehicles. Its sales account for half of the domestic market, which is the sum of all the latter.
Now the time is running out for other new energy vehicle enterprises. With the second generation of traditional cars represented by the Great Wall and Geely making new energy vehicles, Huawei asked the world to emerge, and the situation facing the new forces is more severe.
New energy vehicles and lithium batteries are the major road, has been born several world-class, trillion market value of enterprises, now the two industries are facing a big reshuffle, power battery strength enterprises rise rapidly.
We expect that in the future, the new energy industry chain will have five times the growth space, will achieve 10 trillion level of the grand road. In 2022, the penetration rate of new-energy vehicles is more than 20%, and there is still four times the space. We have 25 million passenger vehicles a year. If we replace most of them with new-energy vehicles in the next 10 years or so, the vehicle sales will be 3 trillion to 5 trillion yuan a year. The whole industry chain of new energy will exceed 10 trillion yuan, and it will become the first pillar industry of the national economy and the most promising industry to replace real estate.
So where will the most explosive areas of the new energy industry come from in the future? In my opinion, there are several characteristics: broad market space, in line with the general trend of industry development, but there are still technical bottlenecks to be broken; The industry is not yet commercialized on a large scale, but it is on the eve of dawn: the industry landscape is not yet formed, every player has a chance, valuations are low, explosive, and great companies are expected to be born.
If the past five years have been a blowout period for new energy vehicles and lithium batteries, then in the future, I am optimistic about autonomous driving, hydrogen energy, energy storage three trillion new track, ready to start.
The future development of the global new energy industry mainly includes three main trends: from electrification to intelligence, from coal power to “green electricity + energy storage”, and from lithium batteries to hydrogen energy batteries.
First, from electrification to intelligence, intelligent driving is the general trend in the future, and the era of software-defined cars is coming.
Second, from coal power to “green electricity + energy storage” in the future. The current new-energy vehicles are not the final solution, even with the concept of pseudo-new energy, mainly coal power. In the future, only the mode of “green electricity + energy storage” can be considered as the real new energy, increasing the proportion of non-fossil energy in primary energy consumption, mainly including renewable power generation and comprehensive utilization of electric power, such as wind power, photovoltaic, new energy-friendly grid-connected new-generation grid, new energy storage, etc.
The third is from lithium batteries to hydrogen energy. The current hydrogen energy is just like the lithium battery and photovoltaic five to 10 years ago. Although it has not yet been commercialized on a large scale, it is logically in line with the general direction of human energy evolution from the bottom level. It is the cleanest energy solution for human beings.
Energy security and clean energy are major national strategies. Hydrogen energy is the cleanest energy in the 21st century, with abundant element resources, long storage time and high energy density. In the future development of hydrogen energy industry, continuous breakthroughs should be made in various aspects, such as upstream hydrogen production, midstream hydrogen storage and transportation, and downstream hydrogen application. Hydrogen energy industry chain is on the fast track of development.
We expect that the new energy market will have a huge incremental space, the competitive pattern is uncertain, and there will be a big reshuffle in the future. It is not yet known who will win.