Life,  Tech,  Wealth

In 2023, which industries are worth joining?

How did you survive in 2022?

The epidemic prevention policy has moved from being closed at the beginning of the year to being liberalized at the end of the year.

And companies have gone from layoffs at the beginning of the year to layoffs at the end of the year-maybe there was a layoff in the middle of the year .

The general environment is not good, we all know it.

In the backstage of my official account, I received a lot of sharing and replies from fans. Some people can’t figure it out, some people are nervous, and some people can’t see the future.

In 2023, life still has to go on.

Which industries can not or less affected by the crisis? Which industries can even rise against the trend ?

First of all, I would like to emphasize that all my judgments are based on my 14 years of experience in the human resources industry of foreign companies and more than 4 years of experience in the Internet industry, which cannot cover all company situations.

In addition, I do not advocate joining the so-called hot industries. History has repeatedly proved that in some seemingly ordinary sub-sectors, if you can achieve the ultimate, you still have the opportunity to stand up and make money . Compared with popular industries, what is more important is our enthusiasm for the cause and how to build our influence in the industry.

1. Find your trend
Every era has its own industry trends.

Lei Jun once said: People should not push stones up a mountain; they should run to the top of the mountain first, and then kick the stones down . This sentence later evolved into “a pig standing in the wind”.

But Lei Jun’s original intention is that we should follow the trend.

Nowadays, the “momentum” that can make capital investment crazy no longer exists; but this does not mean that there is no trend, there is still a trend, there are still companies investing, and there is still a market for talents .

As I mentioned in “How to judge whether the industry has a “money path””, there are three types of industry development :

technology- driven development;
consumption-driven development; and
Demographic driven development.

Translated into adult words: There are three types of industries that deserve our high attention .

High-tech industry: Technology is the primary productive force, and there will always be capital support for cutting-edge technology research and development;
Consumer goods industry: As human beings, we have normal needs, we need food, clothing, housing and transportation, and the consumer goods industry meets our needs;
Medical, elderly care and health industry: As Chinese, we know very well that we are getting old, and an aging society is coming soon.

The high-tech industry is an industry in which we humans look up to the starry sky .

Although launching a rocket to land on Mars does not seem to be everyone’s demand, and even most countries do not have such a demand, this does not prevent Musk’s SpaceX from becoming a super unicorn with a valuation of up to 137 billion US dollars.

Consumption and medical care and elderly care are our down-to-earth needs .

During the period when the new crown hit, all kinds of medicines and health care products were robbed. To put it bluntly, a better life and a healthy life are what our people just need.

In 2022, the latest annual salary adjustment survey report released by the former owner Mercer shows that in 2023, the salary adjustments of all walks of life will decline, but relatively speaking, the industries that will be 5% higher in 2023 are:

High-tech industry: 6.3%;
Life Sciences (Healthcare) : 5.6%
Internet: 5.5%
Consumer Goods: 5.1%

Of course, this trend is too thick, and we will continue to split it.

More importantly, we need to find some underlying trends from some real cases around us. For example, in 2022, have you ever drank milk tea? Have you noticed any changes in milk tea in 2022?

Next, in the chapter “Consumer Industry”, I will focus on some changes in the milk tea industry to analyze the market trends behind it. Let’s first look at the high-tech industry.

2. High-tech industry

Some companies in the high-tech industry are happy and others are sad. If you want to find a suitable high-tech industry to join, you need to look at how the high-tech industry can be commercialized; on the other hand, how it is supported by national policies.

The high-tech industry is also divided into situations.

For the artificial intelligence industry that exploded in the past few years, life is not so easy.

In 2017, AlphaGo beat Li Shishi and Ke Jie successively, which made us think that people with super learning ability and artificial intelligence entered life, which is just a few years ago.

Now 5 years have passed, although the artificial intelligence industry is developing in full swing – last year, artificial intelligence drawing was an eye-opener for us – but how to commercialize (make money) is still a question.

Big artificial intelligence companies that were valued at tens of billions or hundreds of billions of dollars back then, such as Yuncong Technology, which is backed by the Chinese Academy of Sciences and has a background in the national team, now only have a market value of 10 billion+ RMB after the IPO, which is far from expectations.

But on the other hand, new energy vehicles, which are also closely related to artificial intelligence (unmanned driving), have received great attention from the market. Nowadays, the market often mentions the three small powerhouses of new energy vehicles “Wei Xiaoli”, who are currently in the In a state of loss, but still alive and well.

There are probably several reasons:

1) Car: the next Internet terminal

Nowadays, major manufacturers such as Xiaomi and Huawei are trying to join the car manufacturing industry, because in the eyes of major manufacturers, cars will be the next terminal device for us to connect to the Internet after smartphones.

From computer networking to mobile phone networking, an important change is the surge in the number of Internet users. Not everyone has a computer, but nowadays, regardless of urban or rural areas, everyone has a mobile phone. Therefore, Internet users doubled from 450 million in 2010 to 1 billion+ in 2021.

Well, after this wave, the “user scale” of the Internet is difficult to dig further—think about whether the elderly and children around you are using mobile phones…

Next, what can be further explored is the “duration of use”. As we all know, driving is currently unable to access the Internet, but if there is driverless technology in the future, then you can also access the Internet while driving.

Making cars now is to become the Apple of the future.

2) Policy trend: energy conservation and emission reduction + national attention

Our country has signed the Paris Agreement to achieve carbon neutrality in 2060. This goal is not easy.

Not only that, but as a responsible big country, the country has declared itself to be a “ leader in energy conservation, emission reduction and environmental protection ” regarding energy conservation and emission reduction.

We want to be a leader, so new energy vehicles are an important way to realize this path. Not only that, new energy vehicles are also likely to be the best way for my country to overtake the United States, Japan, Germany and other established auto powers in the auto industry.

In the first 11 months of 2022, my country exported 2.78 million vehicles, surpassing Germany and becoming the world’s second largest vehicle exporter. Among them, the export of new energy vehicles doubled year-on-year.

As for the domestic pride of new energy vehicles, BYD will once again win the global sales champion in the first half of 2022 with 641,400 vehicles surpassing Tesla’s 564,000 vehicles.

This exciting news was also highlighted by CCTV. The country’s attention is evident.

Against this backdrop, not only is the new energy vehicle industry getting better, but upstream and downstream supply chain companies are also enjoying a good life. For example, Ningde era, which makes batteries, and semiconductor companies that produce automotive chips…

3. Consumer goods industry

Discover the next “lipstick” – If you want to join the consumer goods industry, you must pay attention to the general trend of consumption downgrade. Those companies that are looking for the middle class against the trend have a high probability of layoffs.

The lipstick effect refers to the hot sale of lipsticks due to the economic depression, also known as the “preference trend for low-priced products” .

In the United States, whenever the economy is in a downturn, lipstick sales will skyrocket .

The reason is that people think lipstick is a relatively cheap luxury item. In an economic downturn, people will still have consumption desires, so they will turn to cheaper luxury items.

On the one hand, lipstick, as a “cheap non-essential item”, can play a ” comforting ” role for consumers, especially when the soft and moist lipstick touches the lips.

On the other hand, the recession of the economy will reduce the spending power of ordinary people, and industries that used to spend a lot of money, such as buying a car, buying a house and traveling, are often cut off. Instead, there will be some spare money in hand, which can be used to buy “lipstick” as a cheap way of enjoying.

China also has similar non-essential low-priced luxuries, for example, milk tea.

In the past 2022, we can also find some interesting phenomena in milk tea.

1) High-end brands are cutting prices

The high-end brand refers to “Hey Tea”. Xicha will start to lay off employees at the beginning of 2022, and the scale is not small. The high price positioning does not allow HEYTEA to achieve high profits.

Afterwards, HEYTEA began to reduce the price, and basically adjusted the price of milk tea above 30 yuan to between 15-29 yuan. Even so, HEYTEA still closed more than 80 stores throughout the year.

On the other hand, low-priced milk teas such as Michelle Ice City and Coco still maintain a relatively high market share.

2) Big barrel milk tea becomes popular

Not only that, but this year, large buckets of milk tea have gradually become popular, and the ” big bucket of tea ” was once called by the media as a product that revived the milk tea industry.

In August, the food delivery platform had a set of interesting data: In July, the variety of big bucket milk tea products surged, up 254% year-on-year, of which 80% were fruit milk tea . In addition to the common 1-liter barrel capacity, some milk tea shops have also upgraded the milk tea capacity to 6 liters, and many netizens say it is enjoyable.

Although the capacity of “big barrel tea” has increased, the price has not increased significantly. Some main high-end milk tea brands with an average price of more than 30 yuan have also launched large buckets of milk tea products with an average price of less than 20 yuan, and the “cost-effective” is relatively high.

This is a clear trend of downgrading consumption – consumers want more while cutting prices …

You can also judge from your own behavior. In 2022, when the days are getting tighter and tighter, we still want to enjoy life. If you can’t travel and enjoy, then have a good meal; It is also possible to take out a cup of cost-effective milk tea.

In 2023, in the consumer goods industry, I am more optimistic about :

Smart home appliances (spending more time at home, more demand for technology products such as robot vacuums)
Pet industry (young people today would rather keep pets than babies, Double Eleven is one of the few categories with sales growth)

Not so optimistic about the consumer goods industry :
Mobile phones and computers (the frequency of replacement has been reduced from more than 1 year to more than 2 years, and the market competition is fierce)
Beauty industry (the performance of the industry will decline in 2022, high profits will bring many players to involve, and it will face performance pressure in 2023)

Irresponsible blind guess:

In mid-2023, there is a high probability that we will see the layoffs of some major digital companies, as well as the layoffs of some listed companies in the beauty industry.

This prediction is shot here first, and I will come back at the end of the year to see the results.

There are also some industries, such as meal replacements, which are expanding in scale in 2022, but they are more or less related to closures; another example is the outdoor industry, whether fishing, camping or Frisbee are very popular this year, but will it continue in 2023? Hard to say.

There is a simple and useful way that everyone can learn: After Double Eleven and 618, check the specific sales data of JD.com and Taobao, and you will often have a deeper understanding of industry trends.

JD.com and Taobao have the latest consumption data, and will regularly release some consumption trend reports. These reports are of high value for us to find a job and determine the industry .

It is recommended to watch.

Taobao is good at clothing and food, and JD.com is good at digital home appliances. You only look at one, but you can’t see the whole situation.

4. Other industries

1) Internet platform

Typical companies: Douyin, Kuaishou, Bilibili, Xiaohongshu

Recommended reason: high salary

Existing challenges: high probability of layoffs

Finally, I return to the Internet industry that I am more familiar with.

In essence, the Internet industry has only three monetization methods:

Advertising : information flow(Douyin), content advertising(Little Red Book at station B), search advertising(Baidu)
Services : purely online services such as games; online and offline services such as taxi-hailing and food delivery; B2B services such as corporate WeChat
E-commerce : JD.com, Tmall, Pinduoduo

In the past few years, various Internet companies, led by ByteDance, have begun crazy military expansion strategies.

Byte made an inventory in 2019 to evaluate why it can quickly surpass most Internet companies in just five years and become a big company that keeps pace with Tencent and Ali. An important analysis conclusion is:

We are many.

Even in 2020-2021, when the situation of enterprises across the country is not very good, Internet companies are still expanding their recruitment frantically-the blockade has led to a further increase in Internet traffic, and the Internet is better at telling stories …

However, in 2022, everything changes.

The capital market suddenly discovered that it could no longer listen to stories told by Internet companies. Ever since, the stock prices of various Internet companies have come to an avalanche in the face of the mixed doubles between China and the United States.

Today’s Internet listed companies, one counts as one, and both Meituan and Kuaishou are striving for profitability. And those companies that are not yet profitable, Zhihu Bilibili, are also reducing staff and increasing efficiency, hoping to achieve profitability in 2023.

So, a simple suggestion: When you get an offer, first check to see if the company is profitable. If it is not profitable, wait first .

After making a profit, this company is worth joining; before making a profit, it doesn’t mean that you can’t go there at all, but you need to be clear that an Internet company that is not profitable may lay off employees at any time, and employees who have not passed the probation period are the best candidates for layoffs.

2) Insurance industry:

Typical Business: Health Insurance Company

Recommended reason: good cash flow, good profit

Existing challenges: the income of practitioners is not high, and the homogeneity of industry products

In terms of general trends, although the generation born in the 1980s and 1990s has begun to enter middle age, more and more people will consider their own pension issues.

The country has introduced a new pension policy, but we all know that pension money is ultimately money for medical treatment. Nowadays, the cost of treatment for some terminal illnesses is high, and serious illness insurance is just what ordinary people need, which is also one of the reasons why million-dollar medical insurance has become popular in the past few years.

The insurance industry is an industry that relies on actuarial calculations for success . Over the years, except for the loss of 911, the insurance industry has never lost money, and it is an industry that can survive.

But for practitioners in the insurance industry, if you are not in a high-level position, your salary is often not high. Moreover, the insurance industry is a highly regulated industry, and all products need to be reported. In theory, few companies can produce products that others cannot.

3) Online medical treatment:

Typical companies: JD Health, Ping An Good Doctor, WeDoctor

Recommended reason: user scale surge

Existing challenges: doubtful realization

Due to the epidemic, if you want to go to the hospital in the past two years, you will most likely need to make an appointment online, otherwise it will be difficult to enter the gates of the three hospitals in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou. The guard just blocks you out.

Not only that, because of the lockdown of the epidemic, many hospitals have also evolved themselves and promoted the research and development of their own Internet hospitals. Whether it is easy to use or not is another matter. At least now with the past medical records, we can open hospitals without going to the hospital. medicine.

As of June 30, 2020, the number of annual active users reached 72.5 million, with a growth rate of 29.2%. As of December 2021, the number of online medical users in my country has reached 298 million, accounting for 28.9% of the total Internet users.

The basic disk already exists, and it is not small. Although the epidemic situation is gradually being loosened, good doctors will always be a scarce resource.

Some time ago in Beijing, there was a recording of the consultation by the deputy chief physician of Xiehe about children infected with the new crown. The price of the telephone consultation was 499 yuan.

I also bought a similar service for my dad. I registered an expert account offline, 300+, queuing for 3-4 hours, chatting for 3 minutes… 500 online, making an appointment, and chatting with the doctor for 20-30 minutes. Ask all the questions clearly.

The problem with this industry, of course, is that it’s not profitable. Even JD Health and Ali Health, which have big businesses and big businesses, will still lose money in 2021, and their mid-year report in 2022 has just made a profit. Most other companies are losing money. Dr. Clove has transformed into self-media…

4) Enterprise digital transformation

Typical enterprises: various consulting companies, SAAS companies

Recommended reason: B2B business, high business stability, is a hot topic

Existential Challenge: Not Making Money

2021 will be the golden age of SAAS. The market value of foreign SAAS giants has skyrocketed, and domestic SAAS companies have gone public one after another.

But in 2022, many domestic SAAS institutions will begin to lay off staff.

In my opinion, SAAS companies can join, especially those from foreign companies in the B2B industry that I have experienced similarly. SAAS companies pay more attention to science, data and services, and have the soil suitable for foreign companies to survive.

But choosing a company is still a matter of choice. From the current situation, SAAS is a big product. As an enterprise customer, it is difficult for you to change suppliers every now and then. Not to mention the resistance from the supplier, the internal resistance of the company is also huge.

Therefore, the larger the size of SAAS players, the stronger their competitiveness. Here we have to mention organizations such as Enterprise WeChat, Ali Dingding, and Feishu .

They have gradually invaded the living space of some SAAS enterprises. I have evaluated multiple corporate culture-related applications on Enterprise WeChat before (Original text: Under the epidemic of layoffs, where will corporate culture go?) , Tencent Lexiang left a deep impression on me. When charging, Lexiang has the halo of Tencent, but it is still a free tool…

If a company embraces Tencent’s ecology, then Tencent Lexiang will become the company’s standard equipment just like corporate WeChat and Tencent Meeting .

Similar Feishu also provides a variety of tools other than Feishu itself, such as: Feishu OKR, Feishu 360 Performance, Feishu Meeting and other tools.

In addition, there is also an obvious trend that the closer SAAS products are to money, the better they can live—customer management SAAS organizations that are close to money often live better than back-end SAAS companies related to finance, taxation, human resources, and OA .

This principle is also very obvious. Today’s enterprises are more utilitarian. Only when you know that you can bring him business income can he pay you a service fee…

For other things, you can cut them if you can. If you can’t cut projects, you have to cut budgets.

write at the end

Teacher Liang Ning once said:

The saddest thing in the world is that you are a very hardworking person, but the economy you are attached to is sinking.

When the trend is in full swing, the vast majority of professionals are often powerless to struggle .

I have always believed that, as migrant workers, we should not just immerse ourselves in daily work, but also be a careful person, a person who is good at discovering trends around us, and a professional person who is good at discovering patterns.

Small trends around you may eventually converge into a major trend in the industry.

My observation may not be accurate; but if you are in the industry, you must have a deeper understanding of the industry. Don’t wait until the ship is sinking to realize you need to jump ship .

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