The Middle East, especially the Palestinian region where Jerusalem is located, is a veritable hornet’s nest on Earth.
On October 7, Hamas, the Palestinian armed organization in Gaza, suddenly launched the “Assaq Flood” operation without declaring war.
In just three hours, a total of 5,000 rockets flew into southern Israel, causing a saturation strike on Israel’s Iron Dome system.
Many rockets broke through the defense line and hit the Israeli mainland.
In the billowing black smoke, the local people completely lost their composure and ran for their lives.
This is the first time in more than half a century that the Jews have been in such misery.
During the attack, not only was the separation wall ineffective, but the Israeli army was also caught off guard. A major general was captured by the opponent, dozens of people were taken hostage, more than 600 people were killed, and 1,800 were injured.
There is still no clear number of how many Israelis were taken captive.
The Israeli authorities immediately retaliated, launching “Operation Iron Sword” against the Hamas organization, mobilizing the country and declaring a “total war.”
This is also the first time in more than half a century.
According to statistics from the Palestinian Gaza Strip health department on the morning of the 8th, the Israeli bombing of the Gaza Strip has caused 313 deaths and 1,990 injuries.
These figures may not be reliable, but the number of casualties must be increasing every minute.
Various s on the Internet, showing the tragic scene of corpses and scorched earth on the battlefield, shocked everyone’s hearts.
At this moment, all the war propaganda, all the clamor, lies and hatred, comes from spectators who are not fighting.
Why was Israel so badly beaten despite not being aware of the attack?
Why does Hamas suddenly have such powerful firepower? And why did you choose this time for the suicide raid?
Maybe nothing is accidental.
Israel is weaker than ever
Israel was a country specially established in 1947 to collect Jews from all over the world.
Originally, everyone was Jewish and the ethnic composition was very simple, but problems soon arose.
Jews can be roughly divided into two sects, extreme Jews – Haredi sects, and ordinary Jews – secular sects.
Haredi believe that Israel is an illegal country that interferes with the course of history, is a blasphemy against God, and should be destroyed.
To this day, they still spare no effort to denounce the government, which is not inferior to the hatred of the Palestinians against Israel.
At the beginning, Ben Gurion, the founding father of Israel, gave them many privileges in order to win over these people:
No grain, no taxes, no military service, no production.
A bit like a monk in a temple, he is only responsible for chanting sutras, eating, and sleeping every day.
But they have one more skill than monks: giving birth to babies.
They receive subsidies from the government every day and have no work to do. They can only create people like crazy, giving birth to seven or eight children per family, and the population expands rapidly.
When these children grow up, like their parents, they chant sutras and create humans every day…
Father begets sons, and sons beget grandchildren. The Haredi sect has rapidly grown from the initial 10,000 to 1.2 million, accounting for 12% of the country’s population.
In other words, 12% of the population of Israel are Draconians.
Moreover, the current average fertility rate of Haredi women of childbearing age remains at 7.1, and their enthusiasm for childbirth has not diminished at all.
This leads to a problem: Israel is very short of labor, and they can only bribe a large number of Arabs to do low-level jobs.
As we all know, Arabs are also very fertile.
After two or three generations of this group of Arabs, their descendants all obtained Israeli household registration.
Gradually, the secularists felt something was wrong.
A large number of foreign Arabs are increasing here, and a large number of fake monks are prospering over there.
The real backbone of the country, the proportion of ordinary Jews is getting smaller and smaller.
What Israel learned from the United Kingdom and the United States is the voting method, which is based on head count, one person, one vote.
Now a large part of the votes are in the hands of Haredis and Arabs, resulting in the failure of any proposal from the secularists to pass.
The secularists are equivalent to the hawks, insisting on developing technology and armaments to complete Jewish Zionism.
Haredism only focuses on the Bible, rejects war, and opposes Jewish secularization, which is equivalent to doves.
Let alone the Arabs, it is impossible for the Jews to become stronger and then attack their own compatriots.
The conflict between the three has never ceased.
Based on fertility projections, secularists will become a minority in less than 30 years. And Israel is a democratic country, whichever side has more people listens to whoever is listening.
At that time, all Zionism will have to stop.
The external situation is even less optimistic.
The most important thing is that the reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran means that the strategy of “cooperating with Sunnis against Iran” for many years has failed.
Once the Arab world is integrated, Israel will appear particularly glaring in the Middle East.
Secularists believe that to solve the current problem, the voting system of separation of powers will not work. Maybe the Arab coalition forces come to the door, and we can’t discuss the outcome.
In addition, in recent years, Israeli nationalism has exploded and it has been bombarding Palestine wildly. Last year Al Jazeera reported that at least 750,000 Palestinians had been expelled from their homes.
In order to better control the situation and cater to secular sentiment, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu decided to promote judicial reform:
1. Parliament can override the courts; 2. Reasonable judgments are abolished; 3. The majority party has the power to appoint judges; 4. The appointment of judicial advisers to ministers is given to the cabinet and its decision-making power is abolished.
Simply put, it is to completely abolish the role of the Supreme Court in the separation of powers and to make the highest power a winner-take-all under the premise of implementing a multi-party system.
Now the Haredi faction has given up. In March this year, they directly encouraged 700,000 people to take to the streets to demonstrate, and trade unions in various places organized a nationwide general strike.
This is the largest protest since the founding of the state of Israel. Aviation, logistics, and education are all paralyzed.
Haredi and secular military and police fight together
In addition to domestic opposition, the White House has also strongly opposed judicial reform.
Biden said that this is not going to work, and you should give up this reform.
Netanyahu was furious and immediately retorted: “Israel is a sovereign state that makes decisions based on the will of its people, not on the basis of foreign pressure, including from its best friends.”
In order to show his attitude, Netanyahu directly kicked out the defense minister who expressed opposition.
On July 24, the Israeli Knesset passed a key bill with 64 votes in favor and 0 votes against, officially stripping the Supreme Court of its veto power.
In response, the domestic opposition protests have become increasingly fierce, and the two sides have almost become incompatible.
Former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert warns: Israel is heading towards a civil war.
Riot police used water cannon to disperse demonstrators Source: Associated Press
There is no doubt that this is Israel’s weakest moment in half a century.
As their enemy, Palestine, especially Gaza, will certainly not miss this golden opportunity.
Hamas, stronger than ever
Gaza is a narrow strip of land on the east coast of the Mediterranean Sea.
It is 6-8 kilometers wide, 40 kilometers long, and covers an area of 363 square kilometers. It is much smaller than many counties in China, but it has a population of more than 3 million.
It has been called “the largest open-air prison in the world” and is a disgrace to modern human civilization.
In 1948, during the first Middle East war, Gaza was annexed by Egypt, and the locals were reduced to second-class citizens.
In 1967, during the Third Middle East War, Israel occupied the area again and adopted even more brutal oppression.
Jews continue to build settlements in the area, squeezing the living space of Gazans.
Especially after 1982, when Israel returned the Sinai Peninsula to Egypt, a large number of Jewish immigrants moved to the adjacent Gaza area, and the Arab area continued to shrink.
By 2005, Gaza had shrunk by more than 70% from its original size.
At that time, the Palestinian Fatah government reached a peace agreement with Israel. The two sides ceased fire and Israel moved its troops and people out of Gaza.
But Israel played a word game: it would only return the land, but would not withdraw its military power from the coastline, land borders and airspace.
And an additional rule was added: except for the Israeli Air Force and chartered civilian flights, all others in the skies over Gaza should be shot down.
To put it simply, the Palestinians in Gaza are equivalent to being imprisoned in prison, with air, sea and land borders all blocked.
Not to mention trade, even the supplies necessary for survival from outside assistance must be licensed by Israel before they can be shipped in.
In 2008, internal strife broke out in Palestine.
Hamas insists on using force to confront Israel and turns against the Fatah government, leading to a conflict between the two sides.
Soon after, Fatah was driven out and Hamas took control of Gaza. It still belongs to Palestine in name, but in fact it has become an independent country.
A ruthless character came on the other side, and Israel decided to be even more ruthless and turn Gaza into a dead place.
When Gazans want to engage in agriculture, Israel restricts water use. If the Palestinians want to develop industry, Israel will restrict the import of raw materials and even impose tariffs. If the Palestinians grow and develop, they will directly close the factory.
This time, of course, the Gazans stopped doing it.
The conflicts between the two sides are getting deeper and deeper, and armed conflicts of various sizes have continued. Hamas and its affiliated organizations have been defeated every time, until today.
Judging from the video footage released by Hamas, they fired more than 5,000 “Qassam” rockets into Israel.
At the same time, more than 1,000 armed personnel were dispatched in trucks, pickup trucks, motorcycles, bulldozers, speedboats, powered paragliders, etc. to quickly penetrate into Israel while the Israeli army was unprepared.
The question is, after being blocked for more than ten years, where did they get so many weapons and equipment?
It is obvious that this time Hamas has the support of its “big brother”.
Some people believe that, on the surface, Hamas’s financial backers are Syria and Iran, but the real leader behind the scenes is probably Russia.
This conflict is essentially a spillover from the Russia-Ukraine war.
Since the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian war, Hamas has always supported Russia and has sent delegations to Russia many times.
And Russia happens to be struggling in the Ukrainian battlefield.
Recently, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany, the most radical parties in the Ukrainian war, have all expressed their stance:
The United States is running out of funds to support Ukraine, with less than $6 billion left. The Republican Party also threatened to cut off support for Ukraine in order to bargain with Biden.
Britain also sent regular troops to “train” the Ukrainian army and warned Russia not to attack British soldiers.
The German Foreign Minister stated that he is ready to provide Ukraine with Taurus missiles.
Obviously, NATO is preparing to step up its efforts to intervene in the Ukrainian war, and Russia is under great pressure on the frontal battlefield.
Therefore, Russia urgently needs to open a new battlefield to divert NATO’s attention.
The chaotic Middle East is the best choice.
Otherwise, it would be difficult to explain why Hamas suddenly launched such a frantic attack on Israel this time when it was just a small fight in the past. This is very strange.
Israel is indeed in internal turmoil, but the power gap between the two sides is still huge.
The territory regained by Hamas will most likely be taken away by the Israeli army soon.
The attack, on the face of it, had no real benefit to Hamas.
Why do they insist on doing this?
Look again at what Netanyahu said:
“The enemy will pay a price they never imagined.”
This sentence seems to be unfinished.
The direct meaning is to indicate that the Israeli army’s revenge will be unprecedented.
Note that Israel calls this operation: a war.
But regardless of size, firepower or sustained combat capabilities, the gap between Gaza and Israel is still too great to be called a war at all.
Obviously, Israel is already prepared, and it may involve the entire Palestine, and even more opponents such as Iran and Syria.
Once the war expands, it will inevitably distract some of the energy of the United States and its NATO allies, causing them to also fall into the quagmire of the war.
According to the US “Capitol Hill”, the White House has approved $8 billion in emergency military aid to Israel. Biden also made it clear: he will provide all means of support.
As NATO’s power is dispersed to the Middle East, Russia’s pressure on the Ukrainian battlefield will surely decrease.
Therefore, supporting Hamas in provoking a war can not only divert the attention of Europe and the United States, increase the burden of European and American foreign aid, but also increase oil prices. Why not?
The question is whether several big guys in the Arab world will join the war for Hamas.
Maybe, maybe not.
On October 6, Saudi Arabia expressed its intention to produce oil to the United States, saying it was willing to increase oil production in order to promote the “U.S.-Saudi Mutual Defense Agreement.”
The White House also hopes to restore diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel within six months.
In exchange, the United States will provide Saudi Arabia with security guarantees and civilian nuclear technical assistance.
Having the opportunity to obtain nuclear technology is profitable for Saudi Arabia no matter how you look at it. There is only a window between civilian nuclear technology and military nuclear technology.
Unexpectedly, the Israeli-Palestinian war started on the next day.
No matter how you look at it, it’s too coincidental.
The Saudi Crown Prince was suddenly put on fire, and public opinion was overwhelmingly opposed to recognizing Israel. Therefore, after the firing, the Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs had to immediately condemn Israel, casting a shadow on the Saudi-Israeli agreement.
Israel’s diplomatic vacuum
The biggest beneficiary of this incident is Iran, Hamas’ long-term financial backer.
Although Ishasa has just reached a reconciliation with the help of Eastern powers, Iran never wants its neighbor to become a nuclear power and weaken its geographical advantage.
This is a matter of survival.
If the war expands, it is difficult to say whether Saudi Arabia will join Iran in attacking Israel, the common enemy of the Islamic world.
But one thing is certain, the production increase agreement between Saudi Arabia and the United States will inevitably be invalidated.
Therefore, even if the war does not expand, it will be of great benefit to Russia to ensure that oil prices do not continue to fall.
However, if there is no flowering here, those behind the scenes may repeat their old tricks and deploy to the east to continue to open up battlefields and distract their opponents.
In order to survive, any means are not uncommon.
All those who fought and lay down on the battlefield had their fates written by ruthless hands.