1. Enlightenment from the era of change: Looking for historical rhymes
We are in the midst of a profound transformation with far-reaching consequences that will make the rules of the future and the rules of success very different from those of the past. In other words, if you do not master the appropriate methods, even if you make positive efforts, it may be difficult to achieve the desired results.
However, if you can foresee the future, you will be the first to recognize the situation when others are unable to see it, thereby gaining a first-mover advantage. Many successful people look back on the past afterwards and lament their own strength. In fact, most successful people relied on luck and decisively took the key step, that is, early intervention.
We firmly believe that this era is full of great opportunities. When new opportunities, trends and rules gradually emerge, if you can seize them as early as possible, you can be among the first.
For example, the first batch of Internet companies include BAT, Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent and other companies, and the first batch of wireless Internet companies include Byte, Pinduoduo, Didi and other companies. Their achievements are remarkable.
Today, each of us could be among the first to be part of the smart revolution.
1. In the era of change, the era of lying down and winning is over
When we face problems in the past, we always look for precedents. In this case, everyone may fall into another confusing situation: if there is no precedent to follow, how can we find a way forward? Is it true that we can only explore and move forward like crossing a river by feeling for the stones?
Fortunately, we still have a way out, and that is to learn from Mark Twain’s famous saying: History does not repeat, but it rhymes. We can look back at history and look for rhymes that can reveal patterns today.
Historical turning points appear many times. When each turning point comes, if we broaden our horizons and observe the entire historical cycle and complete turning points, we can find clues before and after the turning points in the past. From this, we can deduce the impact of the current transition and guide our future path.
Over the past 40 years, China has experienced sustained, stable and rapid development. However, no economy can maintain ultra-high growth for a long time. As the scale of my country’s economy continues to expand, its development trend has gradually stabilized.
The general law of economic development is that it fluctuates, sometimes slowly and sometimes suddenly, and at the same time, there are local differences between good and bad. In other words, even in periods of rapid economic development, the development of some areas is still unsatisfactory; while in periods of poor economic conditions, there are still many positive factors worthy of attention.
This means that everyone benefited in the past, and future success depends on your own choices.
① Flaws of Dalio’s “financial cycle theory”
In light of some concerns about the possibility of stagnation over the next 30 years, a view consistent with business cycle theory has emerged, namely Dalio’s financial cycle theory.
Dalio’s financial cycle theory refers to the process in which a country, after it develops to prosperity, experiences a decline and a Great Depression, and then gradually recovers from scratch to the next stage of prosperity, which will take a very long time.
In fact, after the Great Depression in 1929, the United States experienced a period of great economic prosperity. From the end of World War II in 1945 to the early 1970s, the economy experienced rapid economic development for nearly 30 years. This development contradicts Dalio’s theory.
In 1920, after the baptism of the First World War, various countries signed peace agreements one after another and achieved peace with a handshake. During this period, the development of science and technology brought hope to the progress of society. Many advanced technologies, such as radios, televisions, refrigerators, washing machines, etc., gradually entered people’s lives.
Due to the end of World War I, the advancement of science and technology, and the arrival of peace, people are full of expectations for the future. Therefore, the 1920s was not a gloomy period, but was known as the Roaring 20s.
Until 1928, the capital interest rate on the U.S. stock market reached 5%, which triggered an unprecedented surge in people’s enthusiasm for stock market investment. However, excessive expectations eventually led to the Great Depression of 1929.
The Great Depression was not caused by a bad economy, but by a good economy and higher expectations.
② Carlota Perez’s “Technology Cycle Theory”
When talking about the economics of innovation, Carlota Perez has to be mentioned. She proposed the science and technology cycle theory, believing that scientific and technological innovation needs to go through two major cycles and four small stages to bring actual benefits to society . The big cycle is divided into an introduction period and an expansion period.
Regardless of the small stage for the time being, let’s first understand the introduction period. The introduction period means that the technology has been established and applied in a certain industry, bringing widespread benefits, but has not yet spread to other industries. At this time, other industries’ expectations were too high, and after the bubble burst, they fell into a trough.
American economist Diago Comin pointed out that the measure of the strength of an economy is not the speed of introducing advanced technology, but the depth of its use.
Combined with the science and technology cycle theory, we can gain insight into the root causes of economic crises, especially the economic crisis of 1929. To promote social development, technology must be transformed into actual products, mass-produced, and used by the general public.
Only with sufficient depth can technology truly promote social development.
2. Different technologies, similar turning points
The challenges we face today are similar to those in 1929. A new wave of technology is about to sweep across all walks of life. During this process, we need to remain vigilant and avoid being overly enthusiastic. Instead, we must solidly introduce new technologies into various fields.
We emphasize the criticality of technological depth. Taking the field of artificial intelligence as an example, although new technologies are constantly emerging, we still need to pay attention to history, especially the experience of the Industrial Revolution. When studying history, we need to pay attention to the deep structure of historical development rather than superficial phenomena.
The deep structure of historical development refers to the basic law of science and technology promoting social development. In every technological revolution, there are turning points. At this turning point, we need to remain patient and review the course of the last round of technological revolution, especially the detailed division of the stages of technological revolution.
Currently, we are experiencing a digital revolution, which is a revolution in virtual products. The virtual product revolution is at a turning point, and we can use the complete historical system as a reference to better grasp future development trends.
We are privileged to be part of the tremendous opportunities presented by the digital revolution, but also with a full historical frame of reference. By drawing on the deep structure of historical development, we can hope to achieve more robust development in the field of science and technology.
2. Historical Rhyme: The Development Core of the Industrial Revolution
1. Father of the Industrial Revolution: Arkwright or Watt?
Tracing the origins of the Industrial Revolution, Watt is known as the father of the Industrial Revolution for his improved steam engine. His innovations made mass production possible.
It should be noted that the number of steam engines produced by Watt was only 500, and they were completely hand-made and did not achieve large-scale and industrial production. This deviates from what we usually think of as the core advocacy of mechanization and mass production of the First Industrial Revolution.
Watt’s products are mainly steam engines, and its production methods have not achieved large-scale and industrial production. In essence, Watt only produced one technical product, and his contribution to the steam engine was mainly concentrated in the two fields of trains and ships. However, it is only one link in the entire automated production process.
There is an alternative view across the globe that attributes to Arkwright the father of the Industrial Revolution. In comparison, Watt is more famous, and Arkwright also improved the steam engine. However, unlike Watt’s huge efficiency improvements in the original steam engine, Arkwright’s improvements were designed to make them suitable for his own factories.
Arkwright is known as the father of the modern factory. The large-scale production he promoted was the essence of the Industrial Revolution. Arkwright used complex mechanical equipment to automate all textile processes, forming continuous, systematic, and automated production. This is the essence of the industrial revolution.
Therefore, we can say that the father of the Industrial Revolution was not Watt, but Arkwright.
2. Wright’s inspiration: experience solidified into the production process
In recent years, the development of artificial intelligence has triggered a series of panics and worries. Many people worry that artificial intelligence will replace humans and lead to widespread unemployment. Looking back at history, has textile machinery automation really led to mass unemployment among textile workers?
Although there have been instances in history where textile workers lost their jobs, this was not a universal phenomenon. At that time, high-end textile workers with rich experience and skills were indeed unemployed, and a large number of low-end job opportunities were also created, resulting in a substantial increase in the employment population.
In the early days of the textile industry, most work was done by hand, requiring a large number of skilled workers. However, with the advent of textile machinery, the situation changed. The automation of textile machinery allows people without professional skills to operate the machine to complete textile work.
The essence of the industrial revolution is to integrate expert experience into automated systems so that inexperienced people can operate the system and produce better products than experienced people.
From a historical perspective, the automation of textile machinery during the Industrial Revolution did not lead to large-scale unemployment, but instead created more low-end employment opportunities. Likewise, today’s artificial intelligence technology will bring more possibilities and opportunities to our future.
3. The revolution originated in Britain, but the United States came from behind.
As the birthplace of the Industrial Revolution, Britain originally had an advantage, but it did not grasp the key factors for the success of the Industrial Revolution. The United States gradually replaced it and became the center of industrial gravity.
① American fire thief Samuel Slater
In the early days of the Industrial Revolution, Britain’s textile technology was equivalent to today’s chip technology, so Britain restricted the export of textile talents, machinery and knowledge.
An Englishman named Samuel Slater went to a textile factory as an apprentice at the age of 14. In the 7 years from 14 to 21 years old, he mastered all the secrets and skills of the textile industry and recorded all the knowledge. in mind, eventually immigrating to the United States.
In the end, Slater took over a struggling American textile company and not only succeeded in making a profit, but also established his own factory.
② American manufacturing system: Lowell model
After Slater transferred British textile experience to the United States, Lowell, an investor in Boston, found that it was profitable to establish a textile factory and began to vertically integrate, not only spinning, but also weaving and even making ready-made clothes.
During vertical integration, labor complexity increases, and both men, women, and children can work. Therefore, he and other investors in Boston built a new city on a wasteland and named it after him Lowell.
The construction of this city fully reflects the complex system of the vertically integrated textile industry, achieving integrated production. To accommodate workers, Lowell even built stores and entertainment facilities in the city. In addition, he inherited Slater’s approach, paying attention to the growth of employees, setting up Sunday cultural courses, and even hired college students to teach child laborers.
Lowell successfully found the secret of the industrial revolution, integrated production. While producing products efficiently, it ensures continuous production of the factory, thereby ensuring profits. He did not have the best of intentions to improve conditions for his employees, but realized it would be good for the business. This model provides lessons for us today.
③ Ford opens the door to large-scale manufacturing
The man who brought out the core essence of the Industrial Revolution was not Arkwright but Henry Ford.
The textile products produced by Arkwright were relatively simple, while the automotive products were more complex, while Ford’s use of assembly lines greatly improved production efficiency.
In 1913, Ford had an annual output of 30,000 cars, so they deployed an assembly line. As a result, the annual output was 248,000 cars, an increase of several times. This is the power of the assembly line.
It is worth noting that Ford allowed us to see the three cores of the industrial revolution: large-scale production, market coverage and consumption.
Achieve large-scale production through assembly lines. Scaled market coverage includes trains and ships. Large-scale consumption means making products as cheap as possible.
In 1916, the Ford Model T sold for $360. At that time, Ford employees’ daily salary was about $5, which was equivalent to 72 days’ wages to buy a car.
In the end, Ford sold 16 million Model T cars in 20 years. This record was only broken decades later, which is really rare. It is very important to find patterns and act according to patterns.
Today we still need to learn from Ford and continue to explore and make progress to achieve greater development.
3. Historical rhymes reappear: artificial intelligence technology
Before Watt, a steam engine appeared, called the Newcomen steam engine. The application fields of the two are highly similar, and they are mainly used in mining, textiles, manufacturing, agriculture, military and other fields. The current application fields of GPT are very similar to those of traditional artificial intelligence. The performance has been greatly improved, but the field has not expanded. Therefore, many people believe that artificial intelligence can only achieve efficiency improvements.
The steam engine did improve efficiency, but was later used in various industries, especially transportation. With steamships and steam trains, profound changes have taken place in the world’s political, economic, and cultural landscape. Not to mention the automated textile factories, gun factories, and printing factories, especially after Ford, complex products can be manufactured.
The application of steam engines has exploded, and the core lies in replacing human experience. Will there be an application blowout after GPT? My conclusion is it definitely will.
In the era of artificial intelligence, if we only focus on energy conservation and efficiency improvement, just like in the era of steam engines, we only focused on replacing the original steam engines, we will miss huge opportunities.
1. Create new application models and industry opportunities
Before the advent of artificial intelligence technology, the shooting and post-production of beautiful scenery required teamwork. However, now with the help of artificial intelligence technology, only one person can complete it, and the efficiency improvement is comparable to the steam engine revolution.
Just as steam engine technology continues to improve and is widely used in various fields, the changes in artificial intelligence technology are also a fact that cannot be ignored.
Today’s AI and GPT technologies have huge advantages over the production tools of the past. This not only means an increase in efficiency, but also reflects an overall enhancement of capabilities and efficiency.
This will open a new era full of opportunities, lead many industries to innovate, and give birth to many emerging industries. We firmly believe that this round of artificial intelligence promotion will give birth to a new generation of enterprises, just like BAT, Toutiao, etc. back then.
With the widespread application of artificial intelligence, we need to pay attention to its in-depth development to avoid potential crises. Having said that, even if there may be a crisis similar to 1929 in 2029, don’t forget that there were 30 consecutive years of great prosperity after 1945.
We are facing a golden development period in the next 30 years, which is also a huge harvest period.
2. Only those who are forward-looking can seize future opportunities.
The huge influence of the Industrial Revolution was not only reflected in the rise of industrial giants such as Ford, but also gave birth to business giants such as Rockefeller.
In 1863, Rockefeller began to get involved in the petroleum refining business, with the initial goal of producing kerosene. As he was keenly aware of the potential demand in the automobile market, he decisively adjusted his business focus and turned his attention to gasoline production. This decision highlights his profound insight into future industry development trends.
Nvidia, the giant in the chip industry, has also experienced a similar transformation process.
Initially, Nvidia focused on graphics acceleration technology, mainly serving computer gamers. However, with the rapid development of artificial intelligence technology, Nvidia quickly seized the opportunity and transformed into a leading company in the field of artificial intelligence chips.
We should look at the impact of games more rationally. Although gaming may be viewed by some as a bad hobby, many great achievements have been honed and inspired by gaming. Poor learning should not simply be blamed on games, but over-indulgence in games in the context of poor learning can be criticized. For students who excel in academics, games are often ignored.
Take Stanford University graduate student Ian Booker as an example. He came into contact with GPU technology while playing games and used campus resources to build a small computing network. This experience attracted the attention of Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, who subsequently invited Ian Book to develop a CUDA software system for manipulating the GPU to perform various AI computing tasks.
NVIDIA vigorously promotes the CUDA system on campus, allowing students to make full use of GPU resources when completing various computing tasks. These students will continue to use the CUDA system when they enter the workforce after graduation, thus forming a strong moat for NVIDIA.
Nvidia’s real competitive advantage lies in its complete software system and ecosystem. Even if other manufacturers achieve leadership in artificial intelligence chip performance, without this system and ecosystem, it will be difficult for them to surpass Nvidia.
3. Development rules and future trends of the technology industry
Looking back at history, we will find that every 10 years a new generation of companies emerges in China.
The law of technological development: it takes three years to see successful models, and ten years to witness future winners.
The rise and fall cycles of technology companies are often closely related to the trends of the times. Around 2000, there were Internet companies, such as BAT; around 2010, there were wireless Internet companies, such as Meituan, Byte and Pinduoduo; in 2022, a number of new artificial intelligence companies will emerge.
Historical experience shows that emerging companies may experience three or even five years of hardship in the early stages of their rise, but once they gain market recognition, they are expected to secure victory within five or even six years. From there, these businesses will snowball from strength to strength.
Today, we are at the point where we are witnessing the next round of winners in the smart revolution. It is expected that in the next three years, a number of intelligent companies will be born, just like BAT in the past. By then, newly emerging companies are expected to surpass existing giants and create new brilliance within 10 years.
Recently, Pinduoduo’s market value has surpassed Alibaba, but it has not yet fully grasped the essence of wireless Internet and may still be overtaken by Alibaba in the future. However, the general trend is unstoppable, and it has become an inevitable trend for wireless Internet to surpass the Internet. Likewise, ByteDance has surpassed Tencent to some extent.
We have reason to believe that future smart companies will surpass BAT, ByteDance, Pinduoduo and Meituan in 2033 or 2035.
4. Become the Steve Jobs of the Artificial Intelligence Era
At that time, some programmers publicly embarrassed Jobs over technical issues, but Jobs replied that you need to think about what technology to use based on the user experience, and you cannot think about how to sell it based on the technology.
As the questioner, Watt’s idea was how to make the steam engine better, but he didn’t know what to use it for. Arkwright was the equivalent of Jobs, thinking about how to automate the textile process.
You may not be Watt, but you can be Arkwright or even Steve Jobs. They are the real promoters of technology.
Jobs was great because he understood the capabilities of cutting-edge technology. When starting a business, you must have the courage to challenge things you have never tried before, and you need to judge in advance whether the technology is achievable so that you can adjust your strategy.
For example, there was Elizabeth Holmes in Silicon Valley, who was known as the female version of Steve Jobs. She tried to build a device that could detect more than 200 indicators with a drop of blood, but ultimately failed because the technology did not support it.
The CEO does not have to be an engineer or scientist who develops technology, but he must be familiar with the performance and capability boundaries of the technology and become an early adopter. Jobs was not the first inventor of the smartphone, but he made it so convenient that it became popular.
Entrepreneurs strive to be number one in market recognition, not number one in product development. If you are the first to use the most advanced technology, understand the pains and joys of using it, and know how to improve it so that everyone can use it smoothly, then you are the next Steve Jobs.
5. Technology-derived global industrial chain reconstruction and online society
Technology often has a ripple effect, not only directly producing products and applications, but also bringing about social changes. Two of the ripple effects are very significant, one is the reconstruction of the global industrial chain, and the other is the establishment of an online society.
① Reconstruction of global industrial chain
First, the relocation of U.S. manufacturing industries
An important factor affecting the development of the global industrial chain is the relocation of manufacturing industries from the United States. What is the logic behind the relocation of manufacturing industries?
We have collected data on R&D expenses of companies of different sizes in the United States from 1981 to 2020, and we can observe an interesting phenomenon: In 1981, approximately 70% of R&D expenses came from large companies. This pattern has gradually been broken. Currently, large, medium and small enterprises Basically each accounts for 1/3.
It coincided with the introduction of the Bayh-Dole Act in the United States in 1980, allowing more patents to enter the market. In this process, large companies usually only send lawyers to negotiate technology transfers, which gives small companies the opportunity to obtain scientific research results and then grow.
At that time, a new trend of thought emerged in the United States. Economists believed that the single evaluation indicator for corporate CEOs should be shareholder returns. This prompted changes in Wall Street’s new evaluation criteria for companies. In order to make their balance sheets more beautiful and meet the requirements of Wall Street, more and more companies are beginning to shed their manufacturing burdens and outsource their manufacturing operations.
The outsourcing of manufacturing operations by large enterprises is usually divided into two stages: one is to move the factory abroad, and the other is to sever commercial affiliation with the country and make it a truly asset-light company. At the same time, if large enterprises have R&D capabilities, they can achieve control. If they do not have R&D capabilities, they will lose control.
Many large companies have moved their factories to areas with lower manufacturing costs, such as Southeast Asia or China. Since original research and development is mainly undertaken by small companies, large companies gradually lose control of their factories during the relocation process, so they even require companies in these areas to process on their behalf and transfer production capabilities to local companies.
The new round of technological changes has made small businesses the main force in technological innovation. Although it was difficult for them to cooperate with large companies, they had a good chemical reaction after connecting with Chinese companies.
As multinational companies continue to migrate their manufacturing operations, our country has learned to accept advanced technology openly and cultivated open manufacturing capabilities for complex products.
China’s openness and large-scale complex product manufacturing capabilities are unique in the world.
Second, the flexible production capacity of China’s manufacturing industry
Currently, the main gathering place for innovative companies has turned external, especially small technology companies. These companies face many difficulties when connecting with large European and American companies in manufacturing business.
To take an example, a guest developed a camera system called Mantis, which has advanced face recognition and license plate recognition functions. However, he could not find a suitable partner in the United States to realize product development and mass production. This guest later chose to come to China, set up a company in Kunshan, and successfully put the product into practical application.
Currently, this camera system has been installed at Hongqiao Airport. This case demonstrates China’s flexible production capabilities. While this capability may have been accidentally developed in the process of working with American companies, it provides a way out for many small technology companies that have been unable to successfully cooperate with large American companies. This has enabled China to rapidly emerge as a global leader in technological manufacturing in a short period of time.
Many cutting-edge products have been successfully developed and commercialized in China, such as blind glasses that help blind people regain their vision, and balance devices that help people with semicircular canal injuries return to normal life. Although these products may be difficult to develop and mass-produce in the United States, they can be quickly commercialized in our country.
Another important factor is our country’s resumption of college entrance examination and reform and opening up policies. These policies have cultivated a large number of talents for us and enabled us to complete our tasks.
Currently, especially the rapid development of artificial intelligence and remote collaboration capabilities, technologies such as mixed reality are realized. These technologies, combined with virtual reality and augmented reality, make remote work smoother.
This means that the industrial ecology will further develop, and geographical density no longer needs to be too concentrated. What we pursue is industrial density, that is, industrial synergy on a global scale. Therefore, our country’s industrial ecology will move towards the next wave of globalization.
② Online social migration
Nowadays, many Chinese companies are emerging in the international market. For example, the game Genshin Impact has been launched in more than 80 countries around the world and is widely welcomed. Genshin Impact not only spreads Chinese culture, but also promotes the culture of many other countries.
Another example is TEMU. It is said that due to the price advantage of goods, many American dollar stores have also been affected.
We believe that the above phenomenon occurs because people’s consumption behavior has gradually shifted online.
In the digital age, our various behaviors can be digitally recorded, tracked and analyzed, and affected by online interactions. Therefore, we can understand the behaviors and needs of people around the world online and sell products from China to the world.
For example, a company called Shein expands its business globally by quickly collecting user feedback and adding or subtracting products.
This marks a turning point in our online society, where we will no longer retreat offline.
We have always emphasized that the characteristics of online society are the collapse of the physical world and the perpetuation of social rules. We will increasingly be influenced by psychological distance rather than geographical distance. For example, during the Spring Festival, when people gather together, children are more willing to chat with remote friends than communicate with relatives around them.
4. Changes in China’s industrial ecology and globalization trends
1. Collaborative tuning of the entire industry chain to achieve ultimate performance
Successful technology companies are not limited to creating new products, but more importantly, maximizing the performance of existing technologies.
Taking Tesla as an example, the key to its success lies in the extreme optimization of battery technology. Through in-depth analysis and disassembly of battery performance, Tesla achieved comprehensive improvements in five key indicators and significantly improved energy efficiency. This innovation enabled the realization of the electric vehicle business model and became Tesla’s real secret to success.
Therefore, a true technology entrepreneur or technology company should work on performance tuning.
Mr. Shen Linlu, a Chinese who has invested in Europe for many years, pointed out that during the epidemic, although our country was in a closed state, the iteration speed of the entire industry was still significantly accelerated. This is mainly due to the synergy of the entire industry chain in our country, in which every enterprise is actively contributing to the optimization of the entire industry chain. Complex collaboration capabilities are my country’s real advantage, reflecting the excellence of extreme performance tuning.
Compared with other countries, China has shown greater efficiency in producing new car models. Americans or Europeans need a three-year design cycle to produce new models, but the Chinese can go from concept to delivery in just three months. This is due to my country’s ability to coordinate and optimize up and down the entire industrial chain, which is my country’s real advantage.
2. China’s real advantage: mass production
The advantages of China that we often mention can be summarized in three words: mass production.
Peter Thiel, a famous American investor, once wrote a book “From 0 to 1”, which many technology entrepreneurs regard as a guideline. The book advocates that original research on new products and the creation of prototypes are the key, while copying prototypes is meaningless and can be left to Chinese OEMs or outsourcers.
Taking my country as an example, the reason why many innovative products such as snake slices, balancers and blind products are mass-produced in Tianjin is because Tianjin has rich technical knowledge and a solid foundation for electronic products and even openness to support mass production capabilities.
Tianjin is the epitome of China’s reform and opening up. No matter how complex the product is, China can achieve mass production. For example, each generation of Apple products requires hundreds of engineers and takes several months to achieve mass production.
So we mentioned going from 0 to 1 and going from 1 to 1 million, these two 1’s are different. From 0 to 1, 1 is a prototype, and 1 from 1 to 1 million is a prototype that can be mass-produced. What separates these two 1s are hundreds of engineers and several months of work, as well as a lot of understanding and experience of the industry chain and supply chain, which is performance tuning throughout every link.
This is China’s real advantage, not OEM.
Unfortunately, the Chinese do not see this as an advantage and even regard it as processing with supplied materials and OEM. Foreign countries have also failed to fully realize this advantage. Therefore, we launched a campaign to find English words that can represent mass production, in order to let more people understand the real advantages of China.
3. From inward to outward, becoming a new species of globalization
China’s involution in various fields has cultivated the ultimate optimization capability of the entire industrial chain, which is undoubtedly a major advantage we have.
We cannot just be satisfied with the state of involution. Involution is to enhance internal strength and improve efficiency. We should actively seek overseas markets and take advantage of efficiency.
Although competition among domestic companies may be extremely fierce, we can often find relative competitive advantages in overseas markets. Therefore, we should stop involution and use the results we have achieved in involution to actively expand overseas markets.
We should realize that the relocation of U.S. manufacturing is not just a relocation of manufacturing, but requires supply chain support and manufacturing support from China. We cannot simply move manufacturing from China to the United States, but should realize the global relocation of China’s manufacturing industry.
Some links can be placed in the United States to be closer to user needs; other links can remain in China to take advantage of our advantages.
The so-called relocation of manufacturing industry should be a reconstruction process, and the leader of reconstruction should be the Chinese. The core of the current industrial chain is in China, and the main goal of reconstruction is to better meet user needs, rather than simply moving out of China.
4. Learn from Japan’s overseas experience
Regarding the relocation of Chinese companies, we need to focus on the following three aspects from Japan.
① Shadow Japan: Not emigration, but spillover
Japan’s industrial chain layout is globalized. Since the 1980s, Japan’s factory construction has made great strides in globalization. Compared with the United States’ relocation of manufacturing industries, Japan’s domestic production has not disappeared, but has been formed through the joint development of domestic production and global production. A larger industrial chain and stronger competitiveness.
China also needs to go through this step. Made in China should not be limited to China, but should be global. The Chinese need to reshape the global industrial chain based on the world’s optimal layout and form the optimal output. Only the Chinese can accomplish this.
Japan is a spillover rather than a relocation, and domestic products cannot be thrown away. All Chinese companies must keep in mind that globalization is not about moving from China to foreign countries. Without a Chinese foundation, advantages will be lost, and local companies need to continue to strengthen.
It took Japan 30 years to realize that its overseas GDP was almost equal to its domestic GDP, and it was called Shadow Japan.
China has been involved in internal affairs for many years and has become stronger. Once it goes overseas, is it possible to become a shadow China in 30 years?
If there is China’s support, then China’s economy will definitely get better. At that time, we were able to integrate the global economy and increase its size, which would be of great help to improve the overall competitiveness. It is impossible for us to be defeated by others in the world.
② Learn from experience: Enter developed economies first
Global economies are roughly divided into three categories: those surrounding developed economies, such as Mexico, and emerging economies. The first step for China to go overseas is to go to emerging economies and developing countries. Because the market threshold is low, it is easy to enter.
There is a reason why the threshold is low. Due to the imperfect market economy, it is easy to get in, but it is easy to be shut down and beaten. Xiaomi’s experience in India will not be an isolated case.
Japan will first deploy in developed economies, and will then move to China and other emerging economies after Europe and the United States have completed their deployment.
The order is very important. Although developed countries have higher thresholds, everyone follows the same laws and standards, so the risks are relatively low and can be predicted.
Business operations are not afraid of difficulties, but of unpredictable risks. We must learn from the fact that Japan’s products and services are more advanced than those in Europe and the United States, and if they produce a demonstration effect, they can spread from Europe and the United States to other countries. The reverse demonstration effect does not exist.
③ Brand strategy and leadership during the economic transformation period
First, build a successful brand by improving cost performance
Some people believe that China’s economic growth rate will inevitably slow down in the next few years and will no longer grow at a high speed, with fewer opportunities. I think there’s still a chance.
We need to learn from Japan in this regard. Japan’s growth rate has been low in the past 30 years, but it has created a number of cost-effective brands, such as MUJI. Now that we already have high-quality manufacturing capabilities, there is no need to let well-known brands monopolize our profits.
Even if growth slows down, entrepreneurs can still find opportunities to pursue the ultimate cost-effectiveness, provide users with the highest experience at an advantageous price, and use the ultimate cost-effectiveness to form others’ trust in our brand.
By going global with the brand we have honed, we can occupy the global market and become a new global species.
Brands going overseas do not simply use domestically applicable products to enter overseas markets, but must do pre-research and development for overseas markets.
For example, Chinese companies that manufacture lawn mowers need to understand the needs of American consumers when supplying products to the U.S. market. The collection type is more suitable than the throw type because the grass is collected after mowing and carried away by the garbage truck instead of being thrown back to the grass.
When going overseas, you need to conduct preliminary research and development based on the other party’s needs and develop products for local users, so that you can succeed.
Second, Chinese enterprises must learn to take the lead and have leadership capabilities.
China already has industrial chain advantages, but to become the biggest winner, it still lacks leadership.
Leadership is to point out the future direction of the entire industry chain, and then everyone can develop in that direction together.
Lei Jun and Steve Jobs both made mobile phones and gave speeches on stage. Lei Jun’s speech is called the Road to High-end, telling everyone that my product is great. Jobs said that he understands the future development direction. Please believe that I will move forward with him to achieve a win-win situation.
Jobs was talking about the future, how to collaborate and how to shape the future together. The focus of his speech was not on Apple’s specific products or technologies, but on the future direction where everyone can collaborate to generate value.
That’s the difference.
China has reached a point where many technological frontiers have been deployed very early, and each link has certain strengths. But we have seen few companies that can lead the world. For example, in the electric vehicle industry, although the industrial ecology is in China and there is only one company that can compete in the United States, Tesla, it is leading the world.
The advantage of being a leader is that it can take away most of the profits of the industry. Apple is so powerful that it has taken away more than half of the profits of the entire mobile phone industry. This situation has a high probability of happening in the electric vehicle industry in the future.
We believe that our country’s competition will enter the next stage, and we need to learn to take the lead, point out the direction, and collaborate.
5. Opportunities and challenges brought by artificial intelligence
Looking back, artificial intelligence remains the biggest opportunity. We have repeatedly emphasized that the core of this era is artificial intelligence. Today’s artificial intelligence is like a steam engine, setting off a digital revolution and bringing countless new opportunities.
1. New directions for the development of artificial intelligence
In the face of artificial intelligence, some people see it as an opportunity, while others do not. Taking AI’s victory over humans in chess as an example, there are three views.
The first situation is when AlphaGo in the Go world defeats Lee Sedol. Some Chinese chess players believe that Go is not worth playing because it will never be possible to beat the AI.
The second is that chess champion Kasparov was defeated by AI Deep Blue. Although Kasparov admitted that AI defeated him, he was not impressed. So he created a better way to play chess, namely a human-machine collaborative chess game. This method of human-machine collaboration not only wins the game, but also creates a new height and beauty in chess.
The third is from the perspective of the Korean Chess Academy, everyone can ask alpha to be a coach. The Korean Chess Academy has changed the training coach to artificial intelligence, which can not only accompany you at any time, but also teach you at a high level forever.
Can you get inspiration from these?
First of all, we need to learn to collaborate with artificial intelligence, never compete with it, and treat it as a working partner.
Secondly, use artificial intelligence to launch intelligent service-oriented products. Today, the services of Go coaches are copied in batches. Fortunately, more such smart services will appear in the future.
In the past, only products and services could achieve scale, and the more high-end products were, the less likely they were to achieve scale, and expert-level services were scarcer. In the future, AI will combine the two to achieve large-scale provision of high-end, personalized and continuous services.
At present, the most discussed topic is still the battle for large AI models or AI performance optimization.
The experience of the Industrial Revolution has already given the answer. After the emergence of the steam engine, the biggest opportunity is not around the steam engine, but to apply the steam engine to industry, such as Arkwright-style and Jobs-style.
The large AI model can be seen as a steam engine. You will understand that a large number of AI companies will go bankrupt. It is not that the business will not be established, but that the business will be dangerous in the future. It just needs technical performance optimization and may be replaced by the platform in the future.
Today, many artificial intelligence-based startups have only two options: bankruptcy or acquisition.
The future direction is to scale services and provide intelligent services, such as personal assistant services. Everyone wants to have a secretary, but in reality it is definitely not possible.
With artificial intelligence, your secretary can be copied infinitely, ensuring that everyone has a secretary, even just a secretary, who can help you complete secretarial work.
2. The evolution and application prospects of artificial intelligence
① Four evolutionary stages of artificial intelligence
Artificial intelligence will have four stages in the future: performance tuning, cost reduction and efficiency improvement, simple services and complex services. Specifically:
First, performance tuning. Performance tuning refers to improving the performance of artificial intelligence by optimizing algorithms and techniques.
The second point is to reduce costs and increase efficiency. Reduce costs and increase efficiency by applying artificial intelligence technology.
Third, simple service. That is, a service that solves your problem in one go. For example, lawyers, auditors, accountants and even psychological counselors provide single services, which can be easily learned and standardized by AI.
Fourth, complex services. Complex services are those that continue to accompany you, understand you and provide you with long-term personalized advice.
② Intelligent service application prospects
First, health services
Modern medicine is technologically quite advanced and should theoretically be able to significantly extend the life span of healthy people. However, modern medicine mainly focuses on treating diseases and saving lives. For people who are not sick, the role of medicine is relatively limited.
Therefore, although our understanding of patients has improved over the years, we know very little about the lifestyle, nutritional needs and preventive measures of healthy people.
Although we have many cardiovascular experts and diabetes experts, there is a lack of professionals in health management. With the popularity of artificial intelligence and smart wearable devices, we are expected to start building expert systems focused on health management.
For example, Tianjin Haiyin’s tongue balancer project is a good example. This project can be connected to the future health platform and provide personalized guidance to each person through artificial intelligence analysis to help the elderly prevent the risk of falls. This is just the beginning. In the future, we are expected to use these advanced technologies to better manage and maintain people’s health.
Second, educational services
The essence of the modern education system has its origins in the era of the Industrial Revolution. The industrial revolution has created an urgent need for large-scale, standardized collaborative work, so there is a need to cultivate professionals with specific skills and knowledge.
This demand has prompted colleges and universities to subdivide disciplines, departments and majors. Each major is committed to standardizing the cultivation of qualified talents, just like screws in industrial production.
At present, many schools are resistant to GPT. One of the important reasons is that the knowledge possessed by GPT exceeds that of most teachers, which may have an impact on the authority of teachers. However, we should realize that education is not just about imparting knowledge, but more importantly, cultivating students’ thinking and problem-solving abilities.
As artificial intelligence develops, it has become an essential tool in the future world.
Anyone who uses GPT knows that the prompt technique is crucial to getting a satisfactory answer. So what we really need to learn is how to ask high-quality questions so that AI can provide us with valuable answers.
Future education should not just teach students to answer questions on their own, but teach them how to ask questions and be good at using artificial intelligence. Although we don’t need to train drivers who can hit 100 kilometers per hour, we do need them to master driving skills.
Third, mixed reality (MR) technology
Mixed reality (MR) has significantly improved compared to virtual reality VR. It is not only limited to playing games in a virtual environment, but can also interact with the real world, which will open up a series of new application fields.
Taking education as an example, through mixed reality headsets, users can engage in interactive learning in actual scenarios. This technology is equivalent to equipping users with a portable teacher who can interact with them and answer questions at any time.
The subsequent development of mixed reality technology will bring two huge opportunities. First of all, the combination of artificial intelligence AI and autonomous driving technology is expected to achieve more intelligent transportation. Secondly, the combination of robotic arms and intelligent robots will also bring more possibilities to future robotics technology.
3. The changes that artificial intelligence will bring to life in the future
With the continuous development of AI technology, artificial intelligence will penetrate more deeply into our daily lives.
In the future, people will no longer feel lonely, but will be surrounded by highly intelligent artificial intelligence handsome guys and beauties. These handsome guys and beauties will be able to interact in real ways, bringing people a richer and more colorful life experience. Just like the game “It’s over, I’m surrounded by sisters” tells the story of a boy being chased by various beauties.
The artificial intelligence of the future will rely on data advantages to know you inside and out, which will definitely make you very happy. Sooner or later, the number of your AI friends will exceed the number of your human friends, because those AI friends are more dedicated to helping you.
write at the end
We often mention the three steps for technology to drive the world, namely behavior change, habit change and concept change, which are the same for everyone.
First, we need to change behavior. Start now to proactively embrace new technologies and use artificial intelligence. Please use unused equipment as soon as possible.
Secondly, habits change. Learn to cooperate with machines, do a good job of human-machine collaboration, and cultivate people’s machine IQ. Let everyone learn to be Socrates in the AI era and find answers by constantly asking artificial intelligence.
Finally, perceptions change. In the future, as AI technology becomes more deeply integrated into our lives, human concepts of social interaction and life will also change.
This change is reflected in three aspects:
First, the future ideal community is the center of human social life. In the past, people would become friends with their neighbors and only get to know these people due to geographical distance. In the future, people will become friends with like-minded people because psychological distance will be more important.
Second, everyone must learn to accept anxiety in the future. Because there are no geographical restrictions, people no longer simply belong to a certain organization, so they must learn to face their personal anxieties.
Stanford University conducted a study and found that anxiety can harm your health only if you think it will harm your health.
Just as modern medicine needs to re-understand anxiety, each of us must learn to correctly understand anxiety, which is a normal emotional reaction. Learn to embrace anxiety. Anxiety is normal. Enjoying anxiety can make you better.
Third, everyone must learn to collaborate in the future.
The same table of delicious food and collaboration can turn hell into heaven.
There used to be a parable about the long spoon. Hell is a table full of delicious food, surrounded by hungry people. Everyone is holding a long spoon, but they can’t eat the food in the spoon. Everything is the same in heaven, except that people feed each other.
In the era of smart services, everyone can better utilize their expertise. Middle-aged people do not need to become half-baked health experts who drink wolfberry tea for the sake of health care. AI will provide you with longevity services.
You need to maximize your strengths and let AI transform them into intelligent services to provide to others. In this way, the future world will be very colorful, and everyone needs to find what they are best at and what they love most.
In the future world, people will be more closely connected. After the intelligent revolution, a large number of services are provided between people. Although artificial intelligence is provided behind the scenes, there are still people in the front interacting with you.
The historical rhyme reappears as the Industrial Revolution gave many people the skills to mechanize their jobs. After the smart service revolution, more people have mastered high-end service capabilities, and everyone can become part of high-end services. As artificial intelligence continues to advance, service levels will continue to improve.
In the future, there will not only be GDP growth, but also allow everyone to use their own advantages to serve others. Providers will gain a sense of accomplishment, recipients will gain convenience, and a new era will be built.