Through a small hole in the wall of the mausoleum, they peered inward. It was the resting place of an ancient Egyptian king. “Did you see anything?” one of them asked. “Yes, it’s amazing!” the other person replied. They saw the statues and gold funerary gleaming in the dim tomb.
These two people are Howard Carter and Lord Carnarvon. For 6 years, Howard Carter has been searching for a mausoleum, and Lord Carnarvon paid for his needs. In November 1922, the workers finally found what they were looking for. The burial chamber full of treasures is one of the four burial chambers in Tutankhamun’s mausoleum. This pharaoh, the king of ancient Egypt, died in 1320 BC, when he was only eighteen or nine years old. This discovery caused a sensation all over the world, but Lord Carnarvon was not happy for long. In April of the following year, six weeks after they opened and entered the tomb, he died unexpectedly at the age of 56.
The doctor believed that Lord Carnarvon died after being bitten by a mosquito, but was it such a coincidence? Why did he die shortly after entering the ancient tomb? Sir Arthur Conan Doyle, the great writer who portrayed the image of the famous detective Sherlock Holmes, was full of doubts. He wanted to know if an evil spirit caused this tragedy. Many people believed that Tutankhamun was dissatisfied with the intrusion of his tomb, so he retaliated.
But the scientific community has never found any evidence that the soul still exists after death, nor has there been any evidence that the soul (if it exists) can affect the real world.
According to the description on the tombstone, the couple’s birthday, wedding day, and death date are all the same, all on September 19.
The ancient Egyptians made the remains of Tutankhamun into mummies and put them in a coffin decorated with pure gold. The tomb was full of treasures.
Today, Egyptian archaeologists working in ancient tombs do not have to worry about their own lives, at least do not have to worry about the ghost of revenge. Egyptologist Salima Icham said: “I study mummies, but I am still alive.” This American scientist is engaged in the study of ancient Egyptian history in Egypt. For these researchers, if there is anything to worry about at work, it is snakes or gravel from the collapse of the tomb.
However, for many people, it does not seem like a coincidence that a person died shortly after entering the tomb, so the saying that the pharaoh cursed has been passed down.
The collapse of “curse theory”
In the real world, coincidences often appear. Someone said that on the eve of a stray cat appeared at his door, he dreamed that he had a pet cat. Similar experiences seem very meaningful, and things that happen one after another seem unlikely to be unconnected. However, is this really the case?
After Lord Carnarvon’s death, over time, other people who broke into Tutankhamun’s tomb also died. Everyone’s death strengthened the persuasiveness of the mummy’s “curse theory”. Some people who do not believe in the “curse theory” suspect that poisonous mold or other bacteria in the tomb caused the death of the trespasser. But people have overlooked a very important point, that is: from a scientific point of view, before you determine the causal relationship, you must determine whether there is indeed a connection between events, and you must know how likely the event is to happen randomly. To do this, you need to start from the big picture.
Mark Nelson, who works at Monash University in Melbourne, Australia, researched “Tutankhamun’s Curse” in 2002. Mark Nelson identified 44 people from Europe who were in Cairo when the tomb was opened. 25 of them had entered the tomb or studied the mummies in the tomb. Cursing (if any) things. After the study, he found that the average life expectancy of the two groups of people has reached the expected value, which shows that the chances of those who were exposed to the mummies are not likely to die prematurely. In fact, Howard Carter lived another 16 years. He died of cancer in his 60s. If there is a curse, then he should be one of the first people to die.
Then why do so many people believe in the “curse theory”?
Tendencies of the brain
The desire for excitement and mystery is one reason, but not only that.
American science writer Michael Shemer is a famous skeptic. He believes that causal connection is the way all animals, including humans, understand the world. Most of the time, we will understand real and meaningful connections. For example, if a mosquito bites you, then you will find itchy red spots on your skin; if you see lightning, then you will soon hear thunder. However, when we only see the result, we tend to guess its cause. For example, the rustling in the grass will scare or surprise most people. It may just be caused by the wind and grass, but it may also mean that a lion or other large animal is lying in wait. At this time, the human brain tends to prepare for the worst. The reason is that if it’s just the wind, you run away without any loss; but if it’s a lion and you don’t do anything, then you are its own. Lunch. Therefore, the most favorable assumption is that something big and dangerous is threatening your safety.
Memories, especially dream memories, are often mistaken by mixing other details.
If you are a child in a dark bedroom and something makes a “clanging” noise, you may first think of not a book falling off the shelf, but a monster hidden under the bed. This mode of thinking that tends to link unrelated events or mistakenly believe that something or someone caused another event is actually a protective mechanism. It has a peculiar name: fantasy illusion . This is the result of evolution, your brain is trying to protect you.
Coincidence around us
Coincidence most easily reminds us of the unlikely cause. If your favorite team scored a goal when you were barefoot, then you might also take off your shoes and socks when you watch the game later. If you meet the neighbor next door in a far away city, then you might suspect that fate or luck brought you together.
Most people realize that there is no real connection between such things. But they are bizarre and interesting, and each of us encounters such things occasionally. So how do you tell which connections are real (like lightning and thunder) and which are imaginary (like barefoot and scoring)?
Use statistics! This is a science that collects data and uses mathematics to understand meaning. Essentially, statistics help you turn data into information.
Statistics can also determine how likely something is to happen, or whether there is a possible correlation between two things. Back then, Mark Nelson used statistics to debunk the rumors of the “curse of Tutankhamun”.
David Spiegelhout studies statistics at the University of Cambridge, England. For nearly ten years, he has been asking people to post the coincidences they encountered on the website. He even organized a “coincidence party” and asked the party attendees to hang a sign around their necks and write their birthday, pet’s name, favorite movie and other information. Spiegelhout said: “If you get 50 people together, it’s almost certain that at least two of them have their birthdays on the same day.”
Our brain thinks that unexpected noise means trouble, which is a protective mechanism caused by evolution.
David Spiegelhout chose to hold this kind of party on September 19. This day was named “Hunter Rod Day” to commemorate Francis Hunter Rodriguez and Mary Hunter Rodriguez. They were both born on September 19, 1600, married on September 19, 1620, and died within a few hours on September 19, 1680. Their story is even less likely to happen than if they were born on the same day and the same year. But David Spiegelhout believes that you don’t need to use fate or luck to explain this kind of thing. The chances of this kind of coincidence are too high. If you wait and observe long enough, then incredible things will happen.
For example, in April 2014, there were 3 major air crashes in 8 days. This series of tragedies seems unlikely to happen randomly. Did some kind of curse work again? In this regard, David Spiegelhout explained: “What you need to ask is, how often will similar incidents occur in a long period of time?” This scientist studied air crash data from 2004 to 2013. During that time, an air crash occurred approximately every 40 days. Although the probability of three air crashes in 8 consecutive days is very low, the probability of this happening within 10 years is still close to 60%, so this kind of incident is still regarded as just a tragic coincidence.
Be a skeptic
In many scientific studies, if researchers believe that their findings are statistically significant, it means that they have used mathematics to prove that they have found a real causal connection, rather than a coincidence or random connection.
The curse, revenge of the undead, the ability to predict the future and other similar phenomena are called “supernatural phenomena”. Many people believe in supernatural phenomena, even if there is no scientific evidence, they still believe in it. Psychologists have found that people who believe in supernatural phenomena are more likely to see the so-called “meaning” in random events. People who misunderstand randomness or probability may feel that events must be interrelated, and they may be more receptive to supernatural explanations. At the same time, if a person believes in supernatural phenomena, he will also find more connections in random events.
Sometimes, a person may only discover the so-called connection because they cannot accurately recall what happened. Do you still remember the example of someone dreaming of a pet cat and then finding a stray cat the next day? This may seem unusual, but can this person really be sure that his memory of the dream is correct?
In fact, we all have incomplete memories. When a person remembers something, the details get confused. For example, a person may dream of a dog or a tiger, or there is indeed a cat in the dream, but it happened a few months before the appearance of the real cat, or even a day later. In real life, people often remember which thing happened first and which thing happened later.
Good thinkers are skeptics. They use statistics to demonstrate what kind of relationship exists in the event, and then prove whether there is indeed a causal connection.
However, it is also wrong to treat all coincidences and similar patterns as random events. Good thinkers are always looking for possible connections and possible causes. If a pattern of events seems too strange and not like a coincidence, then challenge yourself-ask questions and investigate to find the correct explanation. The best thinkers can combine positive imagination with unremitting exploration of the truth.
