Before you know it, 2021 will pass and 2022 will come.
2021 is an unforgettable year, with complex and changeable epidemics, ups and downs in the stock market, and a worrying economy. So, will 2022 be better?
The article will make simple predictions from the aspects of currency, property market, stock market, technology, Internet, new energy, live broadcast, etc., and this prediction is related to the “wallet” of 1 billion people.
Since the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008, the U.S. dollar has opened the floodgates, leading to a flood of global currencies. The U.S. dollar only planned to raise interest rates in 2018, but suddenly encountered an epidemic, so the U.S. dollar opened the floodgates again.
The Fed kept buying Treasuries, releasing dollars to the world. Since the abolition of the Bretton Woods system in 1972, the dollar has been decoupled from gold and the dollar has become the world currency.
When the economy was bad, the United States repeatedly printed dollars to release liquidity to the world. After the economy recovered, it began to raise interest rates, thus realizing the plunder of people around the world.
At present, in the face of persistently high inflation, the Fed is reducing the scale of bond purchases, which is seen as a prelude to the dollar interest rate hike. Central banks around the world expect the dollar to start raising interest rates in mid-2022, at least twice.
Once the U.S. dollar raises interest rates, the world’s currencies will return to the United States, causing asset prices in various countries to fall. At the same time, the RMB exchange rate will depreciate. The devaluation of the renminbi is actually beneficial to exports and can reduce the cost of goods.
In recent years, central banks around the world have increased their gold and renminbi reserves, and reduced their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, in order to reduce the impact of U.S. dollar fluctuations on national financial stability.
The People’s Bank of China looks set to maintain its independence on monetary policy in 2022. The specific expressions are as follows:
First, a prudent monetary policy should be flexible and appropriate; second, increase financial support in key areas; third, further improve the macro-prudential policy framework and governance mechanism; fourth, persist in promoting the prevention and resolution of financial risks; fifth, continue Deepen international financial cooperation; sixth, continue to deepen financial reform; seventh, further optimize foreign exchange management and services; eighth, comprehensively improve the level of financial services and management.
Specifically, there are three main pieces of information: the currency is still loose, and the market will not be short of money; in 2022, it is possible to continue to cut the reserve requirement ratio, or even cut interest rates, and banks will continue to benefit enterprises. There will be more policy inclinations in technology, green energy, neck-stuck technology, etc.
The reason for the inverse U.S. dollar adjustment is that once the U.S. dollar raises interest rates, domestic housing prices are too high, and if there is no monetary support, it is likely to lead to huge risks, so the renminbi will release water in reverse.
But excessive monetary easing is not desirable. Because the United States maintains zero interest rates and keeps releasing dollars, inflation has increased. Turkey, on the other hand, has suffered a currency collapse and inflation due to excessive credit expansion and low interest rates.
Therefore, in 2022, we hope that the RMB can avoid the harvest of the US dollar, and hope that the RMB exchange rate will be stable, inflation will be moderate, and the stock market and property market will be stable and healthy.
The property market in the second half of 2021 can be described as freezing weather. Will the housing market get better in 2022? Many readers are very concerned, because many young people are waiting to buy a house.
First of all, at the capital level, it supports legal mergers and acquisitions in the real estate industry and reasonable housing needs. The central bank’s statement is to boost confidence in the real estate market.
According to the “Questionnaire Survey Report on Urban Savers in the Third Quarter of 2021” released by the central bank, the proportion of residents who participated in the survey believed that “house prices remained basically unchanged” increased quarter by quarter, reaching as high as 55.8% in the third quarter.
A few days ago, Rock Heart conducted a survey, and a large proportion of people believed that housing prices in second-tier cities, third- and fourth-tier cities were facing declines. A large number of home buyers began to wait and see, and even gave up short-term home purchase plans.
At present, in order to support real estate consumption, the speed of bank lending has been accelerated. At the same time, the interest rate of home purchase loans in some areas has been reduced, and a large number of subsidy policies have also been introduced.
Second, real estate taxes and affordable rental housing will be introduced. The real estate tax pilot is ready and is expected to be implemented in the first quarter of 2022.
There is no list of specific pilot cities, but according to the author’s knowledge, many cities are applying to join the pilot program. Because the land auction situation has intensified, and the centralized land supply system has led to a decrease in the land premium, some places have begun to search for land. Action, for example, Bazhou. Therefore, the pilot collection of real estate tax can effectively solve the urgent need of fiscal revenue.
The construction of affordable rental housing has become the focus, and many cities across the country have announced their own construction numbers and goals. This means that there will be a large number of listings for rent in 2022, which is good for relieving young people’s rent pressure and home buying pressure.
Again, abandon the crude way of continuing to rely on stimulating real estate to grow the economy. Although the real estate market is down, the housing market has not been abandoned. The policy of restricting purchases and loans has not been cancelled.
The central bank also reiterated that it does not use real estate as a means to stimulate the economy. This all means that the general situation of the real estate market in 2022 is “stable” rather than rising.
On the one hand, there is no basis for the rise. After it doubled several times in 2016, it has already overdrawn the rising space. In the future, it is necessary to increase the income of residents in order to gradually resolve the huge bubble in the rising property market. On the other hand, continuing to rise means a huge risk, which is inconsistent with the word stability.
Since the real estate industry is still in a downward phase, the debt problems of many real estate companies have not yet been resolved. The property market in 2022 should continue the trend of the second half of 2021, but the downward trend will slow down. At present, all policies and measures, such as price limit orders, are to stabilize.
Although the stock market in 2021 will not have the general rally in 2020, funds are still flowing in. The quality of the stock market is closely related to the amount of capital. During the global epidemic, U.S. stocks soared. This is the result of the dollar’s release of water, which prevented funds from flowing into the real economy and idling in the stock market.
For the A-share market, it is less risky than U.S. stocks because its gains are not large. Combined with monetary and property market policies, a simple judgment on the stock market can be made:
First, money will still flow in. Housing and housing are not speculated, and residents’ willingness to invest in real estate has decreased, leading to high net worth residents starting to run into the stock market, especially relying on private equity funds to enter the stock market in large numbers.
The popularity of online wealth management platforms allows ordinary residents’ small money to flow into the stock market with the help of public funds, bringing a steady flow of funds to the stock market.
Second, at the policy level, guide funds to support technology, innovation, green and low carbon. The central bank, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission and other departments have issued documents to support capital investment in the field of technological innovation and provide financial support for green and low-carbon industries.
With the gradual liberalization of the registration system, a large number of technological innovation enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises can go public for financing. So, the stock market will gain more than the housing market.
Third, be vigilant about several things. In 2022, the stock market should be wary of the U.S. dollar raising interest rates. The U.S. stock market is likely to peak and begin to fall, which will affect the trend of global stock markets such as A shares and Hong Kong stocks.
However, due to the small increase of A shares relative to US stocks, the risk is relatively small. The Hong Kong stock market has fallen below its net value and is likely to become a safe haven for capital. Ambush Hong Kong stocks in advance, you may get a good harvest.
At the same time, due to the weak profit-making effect of public funds in 2021, private funds will also experience large-scale losses, which may affect investment desires.
Therefore, the inflow of funds in 2022 may not be comparable to that in 2020, but it should only increase compared to 2021.
Fourth, beware of a correction in high-level stocks. The hottest stocks in 2021 are new energy, chip and resource stocks. Many stocks have been priced higher, with greater risk of a pullback.
Since November, the style of the stock market has changed significantly, high-end stocks have begun to pull back on a large scale, and oversold stocks such as blue chips and white horses have begun to rebound.
High stocks such as new energy, when will the adjustment be made? Will it be adjusted for more than 10 months like blue-chip white horses and consumer stocks? In short, it is best for investors to stay away from high-priced stocks and not believe in the market dream rate. Learn Buffett’s Value Investing Approach to find more value-for-money stocks.
The development of science and technology leads to the improvement of productivity, which will promote economic prosperity. As people’s needs are met, the original productivity will be surplus, and the economy will begin to enter a counter-cycle. At present, the biggest problem of the economy is not the epidemic, but excess productivity.
Today, Moore’s Law is failing, the original technological innovation effect is diminishing marginally, and new technologies are beginning to breed. This includes:
Substitution of Mini LED to LED, mobile phone under-screen camera technology, 3nm chip manufacturing, NAND Flash stack technology, autonomous driving technology, VR/AR digital twin to promote the development of the Metaverse, application of AI technology in various industries, genetic technology, and new drugs.
The maturity of these technologies will promote a new round of product substitution. For example, new mobile phones, new PCs, new cars, new Internet models, as well as a large number of smart manufacturing, smart home, smart office, smart travel, gene therapy, and new drugs.
At the policy level, the state has also clearly proposed to provide financial support for these new technologies, encourage more technology companies to go public and raise funds, and achieve leadership in scientific and technological innovation by guiding financial support.
This also means that there are many investment opportunities in these new technology areas, and this investment opportunity is long-term. In the short term, the valuation may be too high due to speculation, the bubble is too large, and it faces the risk of correction.
the Internet
2021 will be a very difficult year for Chinese Internet companies. Crack down on the disorderly expansion of capital, platform economic governance and anti-monopoly, and put an end to the barbaric growth of the Internet.
For the Internet in 2022, Heart of the Rock’s predictions are:
1. The pressure on the Internet industry will be eased. Various policies have been introduced intensively, just to solve the crowding of traditional industries by the Internet and the problem of unfair competition. After many times of governance, Internet companies have basically begun to develop in a standardized way, and there is no need to continue to suppress them.
2. The rate of return on the Internet will decrease. The Internet is a typical demographic dividend enterprise. With the number of Internet users exceeding 1 billion, the period of rapid growth of the Internet is no longer.
As Alibaba, Tencent and other companies penetrated into the industrial Internet field, their profit margins also began to decline. This means that it is difficult for the Internet to achieve rapid growth, and it is impossible to maintain profits at 50% or even higher.
After the Internet has become a traditional industry, layoffs are inevitable. At the end of the year, it has been rumored that Internet companies such as Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu, ByteDance, Xiaomi and other Internet companies have completely laid off employees, which will aggravate the involution of Internet companies.
3. The Internet industry is looking for new growth points. Previously, the Internet industry had relied on capital to build alliances. This situation was broken by the platform economic governance policy.
We have seen Internet giants begin to sell their holdings in related stocks, for example, Tencent dumped JD.com stock. At the same time, Internet giants began to exert their efforts in the industrial Internet, began to develop chips, and looked for new growth points from the virtual to the real.
4. China concept stocks will rebound. Now it has reached the state of extreme low price, with extremely high cost performance. Once the policy is warmed up, there will be a big rebound.
5. Whether the metaverse will become a new growth point is still unknown. Facebook renamed the company Meta, which proved the bottleneck of the development of the Internet industry from the side. But whether Meta can promote the arrival of the metaverse era is still unknown.
At present, the metaverse concept stocks that are hyped in China are typical leek stocks, and those who pursue them will pay a heavy price.
new energy
New energy is the biggest hot spot in 2021, and the new energy vehicle ETF will double in one year. The stocks of batteries, complete vehicles, power supplies, charging piles and other companies in the industrial chain have also doubled or even multiplied.
In the context of carbon neutrality, the new energy industry is also a very good growth track, and companies in the industry chain have opportunities.
But no matter how good the stock is, it is also afraid of being expensive. As long as it is expensive, it needs to be corrected. The Ningde era has doubled in one year, with a market value of more than 1.3 trillion yuan. It is called “Ning Wang”. It has continued to fall in the past month, and investors who chase high are miserable.
The judgment on the new energy industry is as follows:
1. Carbon neutrality and new energy are long tracks. The track has a 10-year development cycle, so it’s still just getting started. According to the research data of the Easy Car Research Institute, in 2021, the purchase intention of new energy will approach 50%, and the actual sales will increase explosively, reaching the 3 million mark in the whole year.
Compared with the total sales of 23 million, 3 million is still less than 15%. Therefore, new energy vehicles still have a lot of room for growth. In addition, compared with thermal power, the amount of solar power, hydropower and wind power is still small, which means that the field of clean energy is also promising for growth.
2. The short-term price of new energy is too high and faces a correction. Since December, the entire new energy industry chain has been declining. This is not a problem in the industry, but because after speculation, profits fled, and funds flowed into blue chips, white horses, consumption, and traditional Chinese medicine.
When the stock price returns to a certain position and other sectors are too high, it will naturally rebound. However, the time of the callback cannot be predicted. It is like liquor that has been down for 10 months before rebounding, and the Internet has been down for 11 months and has not yet rebounded. How much new energy will rebound, you can pay close attention.
Wei Ya and other anchors were fined for tax evasion, and the anchors of various platforms took the initiative to pay taxes, which made the live broadcast industry suddenly become agitated.
In fact, tax payment is just to act in accordance with the law. The more core problem is:
1. How much value does live streaming bring to the industry chain? We saw that Wei Ya pays 600 million tax a year. I once wrote an article to analyze how the live broadcast anchors make huge profits, and how the participating merchants lose money.
Most of the products brought by live broadcasts are “three no” products, also known as “new domestic products”. In fact, it is to help digest backward production capacity and inventory.
Especially during the epidemic, offline channels were blocked, and companies urgently needed to sell goods to obtain cash flow, at the cost of loss, which also gave the anchor a greater right to speak.
So, is live broadcasting a helper for manufacturing, or a killer? In an ecosystem, if the anchor grabs all the profits, it will inevitably lead to industry countermeasures.
2. The bonus period for live streaming has ended. Live delivery of goods has evolved from the previous TV shopping and buyer teams. Under the epidemic, it is inconvenient for people to go out for shopping, and live streaming is very popular.
Today, all video platforms and e-commerce platforms are promoting live broadcasts, and even platforms such as station B have begun to bring goods. Video has lost content creation, and the anchors are all salespeople. This kind of involution will inevitably lead to a decline in audience freshness, and the video industry will also go downhill.
Moreover, there will inevitably be more and more regulations on tax payment, quality and service in the live broadcast industry, and barbaric development will not work. Therefore, the bonus period for live streaming in 2022 will end, and newcomers should not step on the pit.
