Vanguard S&P 500: 30% potential appreciation

  Vanguard S&P 500 was established on September 7, 2010, and listed on the New York Stock Exchange High Growth Market two days later on September 9, 2010 under the symbol VOO.P, and its size as of June 17, 2022 was With a value of $239.2 billion, it is the second largest ETF under the Vanguard Navigation Group, which is only $1.4 billion away from the fund size of the company’s largest ETF (Vanguard Total Stock Market), which is also the fourth largest ETF in the United States.
  It should be noted that the fund scale of the two flagship ETFs of Pioneer Pilot Group in their peak period once “killed” all the current ETFs. In 2021, the peak fund size of Vanguard Total Stock Market and Vanguard S&P 500 will be $1.37 trillion and $858.759 billion, respectively, while the fund size of SPDR S&P 500 ETF and iShares Core S&P 500 ETF, which are currently the champion and runner-up in industry fund size The peaks (both in 2021) are $355.1 billion and $334.712 billion respectively, far less than half the size of the two flagship ETF funds under the Vanguard Group.
  Similar to the yield characteristics of all top ETFs, the Vanguard S&P 500 is also “short spread and long excellent”. Wind information shows that the Vanguard S&P 500’s annual (as of June 17, 2022) yield, 6-month yield, 1-year yield, 2-year and 3-year yields are -20.44% and -18.41, respectively. %, -9.62%, 25.20% and 34.05%, as a comparison, the yields of similar funds in the same period were -20.44%, -19.25%, -23.33%, 7.65% and 1.60% respectively. For the last three full years (2019-2021), the Vanguard S&P 500 has yielded 31.47%, 18.38%, and 28.68%, compared with 22.26%, 13.97%, and 8.68% for similar funds. As can be seen from the above data, the full annual and long-term (1-year and above) returns of the Vanguard S&P 500 are significantly ahead of similar funds.
  Due to the prosperity of technology in the United States, technology stocks are deeply favored by the capital market. The industry allocation of all top ETFs is information technology, and the Vanguard S&P 500 is no exception. Wind information shows that as of March 31, 2022, the industry configuration of Vanguard S&P 500 is information technology (25.59% of the total fund size), health care (13.70%), financial industry (13.19%), optional consumption (11.84%) and telecommunications services (9.36%), essentially “identical” to the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF. Specific to individual stock holdings, the top five heavyweight stocks in the Vanguard S&P 500 are Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Tesla and Google A, accounting for 7.04% to 2.17% of the fund’s net value.
  However, as pointed out by the US website “The Motley Fool”, including the Vanguard S&P 500, all ETFs benchmarked against large-cap indexes cannot help investors beat the market because their positions themselves replicate the components of the index being tracked stock, but it does make money for investors, “This ETF (Vanguard S&P 500) will never beat the market because it wasn’t designed for that…but that doesn’t mean it can’t give Investors bring wealth. Over the past 30 years, the S&P 500 has grown at a compound rate of 11%, and the ETF benchmarked against it has yielded very close to this. If an investor invested $10,000 in Vanguard in early 2011 S&P 500, then it will be worth $41,000 by the end of April 2021.” Obviously, this article by “The Motley Fool” did not foresee the S&P 500 falling by more than 20% in 2022!
  Although U.S. stocks have suffered a sharp correction since 2022, and even the three major indexes once fell into bear market territory, analysts at the U.S. website ETF Chanel are still very optimistic about the Vanguard S&P 500. The website published an article on June 30, 2022. “After comparing the trading price to the average analyst 12-month target price and weighting each analyst target price, we believe the Vanguard S&P 500 has an implied analyst target price of $451.95 per share, while its current Its trading price is $349.51, which means that analysts believe that the ETF has room for about 29.31% appreciation in the future.”
  ETF Channel believes that one of the reasons why analysts are optimistic about the appreciation of the Vanguard S&P 500 is that many of its holdings are repurchasing , and buybacks have always been considered to be an important factor supporting the long bull of U.S. stocks.
  In addition, it should be noted that according to the position report disclosed by Bank of America, in the first quarter as of March 31, 2022, Bank of America increased its holdings by 668 stocks, increased its holdings by 3582, reduced its holdings by 3580, and cleared its positions by 799 stocks; At the end of the quarter, the top ten holdings of Bank of America accounted for 18.40% of the total market value, of which Vanguard S&P 500 was the third largest holding stock, holding 51.7357 million shares at the end of the quarter, an increase of 161% from the end of the previous quarter, with a market value of about 214.79 In addition, the Vanguard S&P 500 ranks second in terms of changes in the proportion of positions held.