Q: What do you think of the reasons for the recent sustained rise in various energy prices?
A: Supply cannot keep up with demand.
Q: In the past, there was still an oversupply. Why did it suddenly change?
A: This is because there is a huge information gap and time gap between product prices and production capacity.
Think about why the price of pork fluctuates so much? Everyone sells pigs and buys sows when the price of pork rises. The sows were put into production two years later, but found that there was too much pork and the price dropped, so they began to kill the sows. Then the price of pork went up again.
Tao Zhugong said: Drought is a boat, and water is a car. It’s not that easy to get accurate. Finally, human economic activities are Brownian motion, so commodity prices are always fluctuating.
Q: Do you think “revitalizing the countryside” is reliable? Will our country’s rural development gradually become hollow?
A: It depends on what is meant by revitalizing the countryside. The proportion of agriculture in GDP will continue to decline, and will probably soon fall to less than 5%. If the proportion of the employment population that agriculture can provide exceeds this number, farmers will be very poor. Therefore, it is not very reliable to count on the employment opportunities provided by agriculture to “rejuvenate the countryside”.
On the contrary, if you follow the market and remove the rural population from agriculture and reduce the number of agricultural employment, then the income of farmers will increase, the environment in the countryside will also improve, and the countryside will become more developed and livable, and the countryside can be revitalized. In fact, the appearance of the countryside has now improved. This is mainly due to two aspects. One is financial subsidies for rural infrastructure, and the other is the withdrawal of low-level economic activities from rural areas.
Q: Every year I go to Longjing to buy Mingqian tea, and I find that the tea farmers in Hangzhou are not engaged in agricultural work, but just hire farmers from other places to work. They are essentially landlords and salespeople.
A:This is the social division of labor, and it is the social division of labor that has brought efficiency improvements and promoted social progress. If tea farmers do everything themselves, then: 1. The products and services of the whole society around tea will not be as rich and high-quality as they are now. 2. The local tea farmers themselves will be much poorer than they are now. 3. The employed “farmers” who do not have this job opportunity will be poorer than they are now.
Q: What impact will the levy of real estate tax have on the rental market?
A: Complicated matters are not clear. However, the rent is an overall price, and it is not clear which parts are for bricks, which parts are for faucets, and which parts are for property tax. The final rent price depends on the supply and demand of the house, and has nothing to do with taxes.
Q: Why do you think the real law of the stock market is to keep rising?
A: Because of technological progress, the output of human society has been increasing.
Company/Industry
Q: Is the reason why you invested in Moutai, Tencent and Facebook because all three have social attributes?
A: The spiritual need is very interesting. Its operating law is exactly the opposite of material needs: people’s material needs are limited, but spiritual needs are infinite. The so-called flattering is not too much, that’s what it means. .
In theory, people’s material payment capacity can be expanded indefinitely, but people’s spiritual payment capacity cannot be expanded. Think about it, asking Buffett to pay you $1 million is too small for him; if you ask him to chat with you for 24 hours, he suddenly collapsed. Now I will charge $3 million for a two-hour chat.
People’s expenditures on material needs are all calculated, but spiritual expenditures are not priced at all. Buying an imperial capital villa for Chen Yuanyuan, Wu Sangui will definitely have to bargain; when the crown is so angry that he becomes a beauty, he won’t bargain at all, he needs the spirit. So the conclusion is simple. Whoever can meet the insatiable spiritual needs of the people will make a lot of money.
In fact, there were also such industries in the past that met this demand, such as movies, television, books, newspapers and periodicals, commonly known as the cultural and entertainment industry. Later, something called the Internet came out and made a bold attempt by cutting off the intermediate links. Let the producer directly face the user. Facebook, Tencent Holdings, and of course Twitter, Momo… destroyed an old world and built a new world. I had nothing to do all night, and I sorted out the companies that are most likely to reach trillions of dollars in global market value, and I also made an amazing discovery: there is no traditional manufacturing company! No one! The king of the future must be a company that meets the insatiable spiritual needs of the people, not a company that meets easily satisfied material needs.
Q: Startup companies are hiring people. I want to hear about your experience.
A: 1. Good spirits. 2. Have a strong motivation for achievement. 3. Continue to accumulate the skills required to complete the goal. 4. Able to communicate and collaborate with others.
Q: Do you know the typical cases of companies failing to keep up with strategy because of problems in human resource management?
A:It can be said that there is no need for a case, and all company development problems are in this place. Of course, the main feature is that the boss’s ability cannot keep up with the company’s development needs.
invest
Q: The three investment preferences you proposed-1. Optimistic about the Internet and innovative business; 2. Optimistic about China; 3. Optimistic about companies that meet spiritual needs-Will it change due to the following factors: The Chinese government prevents the disorderly expansion of capital; the Internet industry Strengthened supervision; support the physical manufacturing industry and suppress the virtual economy.
A: In the short term, everything is possible. In the long term, the market is the main means of allocating resources.
Q: Do you want to be full forever?
A: This is completely up to you, there is nothing necessary. I will always be full because I am stupid (don’t know when it will rise and when it will fall) and lazy (don’t like tossing). If you are not stupid and lazy, of course you can control your position at any time and sell high and buy low.
Q: Take 1 million yuan to invest in the following three types of targets: currency funds, China Interconnect, and CSI 300. How many positions will you put separately?
A: 70% for Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, and 30% for China Interconnect.
Q: How do you see the future of quantitative trading?
A: The number of people doing quantitative trading will increase, and the number of people who make money from doing quantitative trading will not increase.
Q: You said that you want to use trading power to reduce transaction costs. Does it mean to sell high and buy low?
A: It doesn’t mean that, it means buying as cheap as possible. I never imagined that I have the ability to sell high and buy low.
Q: What do you think about the investment allocation of part of the gold?
A: According to Siegel’s previous statistics, the return on long-term gold holdings is very low and should be lower than that of money funds.
Q: What do you think of the problem that the income of contemporary young people cannot keep up with housing prices?
A: Don’t worry about other people’s things, worry about your own (can change) things.
Q: Is it best for position adjustment to be accurate to the decimal point?
A:The difference is not big, just ambiguous and correct.
